NOAA says there is an 85% chance of above-normal activity, a 10% chance of near-normal activity, and a 5% chance of below-normal activity. Specifically they predict 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. They have 70 percent confidence in the category projections.
I would like to see FOIA requests for much of this. And analysis as to the accuracy of prior years. I suspect that like much of the government they are hiding them by using back channel communication. See e.g.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/foia-lies-and-subpoenas
The “experts” have burned their trust and sadly they all pay the price.
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