Hurricane Advisory & Information

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2022 20:40:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2022 21:23:29 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt near the center of Alex, and 700-mb flight-level winds of up to 77 kt in the southeastern quadrant. The central pressure was near 991 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt. While Alex continues to generate a cluster of convection close to the center in the northeastern quadrant, overall the cyclone looks a little less tropical than it did this morning. This is likely due to entrainment of upper-level cool/dry air from a trough just west of the cyclone. Alex has likely peaked in intensity, as the system is moving toward cooler water and the divergent outflow caused by the aforementioned upper-level trough is decreasing. Steady weakening is forecast after 12 h, and Alex is now forecast to become extratropical by 36 hr as it merges with a frontal system. After that, most of the numerical weather prediction models forecast the system to decay quickly and weaken to a trough between 72-96 h, and the official forecast follows this scenario. However, an alternative scenario comes from the UKMET and the HMON, which show the cyclone becoming a strong extratropical low that continues quickly northeastward into the northeastern Atlantic. The initial motion is now 060/24 kt. A general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday. After that, the majority of the dynamical models forecast Alex to turn eastward and slow its forward speed as it finishes extratropical transition and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex, and the forecast track follows that scenario instead of the UKMET/HMON scenario. The new forecast track is slightly faster than the previous track through 24 h, then is a little slower than the previous track thereafter. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model, and after 36 h it lies to the south of the various consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late tonight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 31.5N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 32.6N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 33.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 34.8N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1800Z 35.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z 35.1N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 35.7N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 000 FONT11 KNHC 052039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 23 56(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BERMUDA 50 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 052039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 71.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.6N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.9N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.8N 58.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.1N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.7N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 71.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 478 WTNT31 KNHC 052039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 ...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 71.5W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 71.5 West. Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A fast motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday, followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected to become an extratropical low by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41048 east of the center recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda late tonight into Monday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ALEX MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 the center of Alex was located near 31.5, -71.5 with movement ENE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000 ABNT20 KNHC 051705 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alex, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 11 Jun 2022 05:59:53 GMT

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 110509 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Off the coast of southwestern Mexico: Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located a couple hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for continued gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven/Bucci