Hurricane Advisory & Information

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 15:23:22 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 241440 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026 Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend, deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low. Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt. This general motion should continue with a slight reduction in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2026 15:23:22 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 241439 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS