Hurricane Advisory & Information

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2026 15:23:05 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear, causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the southern side of the circulation largely away from the center. Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Dolly. The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and poleward in the tropical Atlantic. The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The timing of the use of the name […]

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2026 15:23:05 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026 103 WTNT34 KNHC 271447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 38.7W ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Dolly. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.7 West. Dolly is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header […]