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2017 Hurricane Names


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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220505
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 22 Jul 2017 09:43:43 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220506
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Nine-E, located several hundred miles south of eastern Mexico.

A low pressure system is centered about 500 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite data
indicates that a low-level circulation exists, and only a small
increase in the organization of associated shower and thunderstorm
activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression.
Environmental conditions are forecast to continue to be conducive
for development for the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Nine-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017)- ...GREG SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Greg was located near 15.2, -123.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Greg Public Advisory Number 20-Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...GREG SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 123.1W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 123.1 West.  Greg is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 20-Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220831
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.4N 127.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.3N 129.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.2N 131.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 137.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 123.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 


Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 20-Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220833
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Microwave imagery indicates that the center of the tropical storm
is located to the south of the main area of deep convection.  The
current intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt, based on a Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.  Greg is being affected by southerly
shear associated with an upper-level low/trough located to the
north-northwest, which is clearly seen in water vapor imagery.  The
global dynamical guidance indicates that the trough will lift
northward over the next day or two, resulting in a decrease of
shear.  However, Greg is expected to reach slightly cooler waters
and begin to ingest drier mid-level air within a couple of days.
Therefore, only slight strengthening is anticipated, followed by
weakening later in the forecast period.  By the end of the period,
the hostile environment should result in the system degenerating
into a remnant low.  The official forecast is near or a little above
the intensity model consensus.

Greg is moving westward or 275/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
north of the tropical cyclone is likely to maintain the westward
motion for the next several days.  In 4-5 days the ridge is
predicted to weaken somewhat, and this should result in a slowing
of the forward speed along with a turn toward the right.  The
official track forecast is close to the simple and corrected
dynamical consensus tracks and is not too different from its
predecessor.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.2N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 15.3N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 15.4N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 15.3N 129.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 15.2N 131.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 17.2N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Greg Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20-Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220832
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34 63  13(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
15N 125W       50  7   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
15N 125W       64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 130W       34  X   2( 2)  51(53)  14(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)  13(13)  14(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)   6(36)   1(37)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Tropical Storm Greg Graphics- Tropical Storm Greg 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 09:27:01 GMT

Tropical Storm Greg 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 09:27:01 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092017)- ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Nine-E was located near 9.6, -96.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 4-Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 220832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 96.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and
it could become a hurricane by the end of the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 4-Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220832
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  96.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  96.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  96.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.1N  98.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.6N  96.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 


Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4-Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220833
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The satellite appearance of the depression hasn't changed much
during the past 6 hours, and the intensity remains 30 kt based on
an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS
ADT.  Most of the convection is still removed from the center and
limited to the western half of the circulation.  That said, the
intensity forecast thinking hasn't changed, and the environment is
still expected to support strengthening throughout the forecast
period.  Given the current structure of the storm, significant
intensification doesn't seem imminent.  However, looking at the
medium-term, the SHIPS-RII probability of an increase of 65 kt in 72
hours is up to 44 percent.  The new intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but similar
after that. The forecast remains above all of the guidance for the
first two days, and near the SHIPS model after that.

The initial motion is 285/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from
the Gulf of Mexico to western Mexico is the primary steering
feature for next few days, and the models are in good agreement on
a steady northwestward track beginning later today.  All of the
global models depict the ridge strengthening after about 72 h, but
the extent to which the cyclone responds by turning toward the west
varies somewhat.  In the models with a stronger vortex, most notably
the GFS, a weak upper-level low prevents the storm from turning too
sharply toward the west.  A weaker modeled storm, as depicted in the
UKMET and HWRF would turn almost due west.  Overall, the guidance
has shifted a little to the west for this advisory, so the forecast
has been nudged in that direction.  It now lies on the right side of
the envelope, favoring the stronger solution of the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z  9.6N  96.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 10.1N  98.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4-Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 220832
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
10N 105W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  51(71)   3(74)   1(75)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  35(38)   3(41)   X(41)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   3(23)   X(23)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
10N 100W       34  1  32(33)   5(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
10N 100W       50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
10N 100W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 100W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
10N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  33(43)   5(48)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   4(20)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  14(33)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)  23(52)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  30(35)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics- Tropical Depression Nine-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 08:40:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Nine-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2017 09:28:07 GMT

CPHC Central Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
ACPN50 PHFO 220551
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Fri Jul 21 2017

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing
advisories on Tropical Depression Fernanda, located about
665 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during
the next 5 days.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fernanda are issued
under WMO Header WTPA31 PHFO and under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP1. Forecast Advisories on Tropical Depression
Fernanda are issued under WTPA21 PHFO and under AWIPS
header HFOTCMCP1.

$$
Forecaster Kinel


Summary for Tropical Storm Fernanda (CP1/EP062017)-...TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA REMAINS WELL EAST OF HAWAII... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Jul 21 the center of Fernanda was located near 19.0N 145.4W with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Fernanda Public Advisory Number 42-Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
WTPA31 PHFO 220900
TCPCP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062017
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
 
...TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA REMAINS WELL EAST OF HAWAII...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 145.4W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 145.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected for the next couple days with an
increase in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with Fernanda
becoming a remnant low Saturday or Saturday night. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Surf...Large swells generated by Fernanda will continue to build
through the weekend along east facing shores of the main Hawaiian
islands.  The resultant surf will be large and potentially
dangerous. See products issued by the National Weather Service
forecast office in Honolulu for details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 


Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast/Advisory Number 42-Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017
WTPA21 PHFO 220900
TCMCP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 145.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 145.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 144.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.4N 146.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.0N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.4N 151.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 154.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 145.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
 
 


Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 42-Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
WTPA41 PHFO 220911
TCDCP1
 
Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062017
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 21 2017
 
The satellite presentation of Fernanda has degraded since the 
previous advisory, with cloud tops warming to the northeast of the 
exposed low level circulation center (LLCC). The latest subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 25 and 30 knots from SAB and 
PHFO respectively, with the ADT intensity from UW-CIMSS coming in
at 30 knots as well. However, a late arriving ASCAT pass from
22/0640Z, indicated that a small area of 35 knot winds remain
present to the north of the LLCC, and thus Fernanda is a
minimal Tropical Storm. This does not mean that the system has
intensified since the previous advisory, but that the storm was
slightly stronger than previously thought.

The initial motion for this advisory is 285/7 kt, representing a 
slight decrease in the west-northwestward motion since the previous 
advisory. The GFS continues to be the northern outlier solution,
with the ECMWF solution the farthest to the south. Hostile
environmental conditions will remain over Fernanda over the next
couple of days, keeping the system shallow with the track more
influenced by the low level trade wind flow. As a result, the
forecast track for this advisory will remain very close to that of
the previous advisory, keeping it to the south of the GFEX and TVCN
consensus aids that are likely too far north due to the influence
from the outlier GFS solution. A general motion toward the
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected through
system dissipation.

Fernanda remains in an unfavorable environment with sea surface 
temperatures around 25C, very dry air aloft as evident in water 
vapor imagery, as well as strong southwesterly shear of around 30 
knots. Strong shear of 25 to 35 kt, very dry air aloft, and 
unfavorable sea surface temperatures hovering between 25 and 26C
are forecast to persist through the forecast period. As a result,
the forecast will continue to show slow and steady weakening, with 
Fernanda expected to become a Tropical Depression in 12 hours, a 
remnant low in 24 hours, with dissipation forecast after 48 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 19.0N 145.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 19.4N 146.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 20.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 20.4N 151.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 20.6N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 


Tropical Storm Fernanda Wind speed probabilities Number 42 -Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017
FOPA11 PHFO 220901
PWSCP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42         
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017         
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 150W       34  X  10(10)  11(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
20N 150W       50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 151W       34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA                                                  

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