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    2019 Hurricane Names

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    Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 151711
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky


    There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 15 Nov 2019 17:18:06 GMT


    Hurricane Advisory 1
    Hurricane Advisory 2
    Hurricane Advisory 3
    Hurricane Advisory 4
    Hurricane Advisory 5

    Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


    NHC Eastern North Pacific

    Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

    Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 151150
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    400 AM PST Fri Nov 15 2019

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Twenty-E, located several hundred miles south of the
    southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

    A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
    of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the low. Some gradual
    development of this disturbance is possible during the next few
    days while the system moves westward at around 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued under
    WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-E are issued
    under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky


    Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)- ...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Nov 15 the center of Raymond was located near 14.1, -108.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

    Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 3-Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ35 KNHC 151443
    TCPEP5
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
    800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019
    
    ...TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.1N 108.8W
    ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
    the progress of Raymond.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
    located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Raymond is
    moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
    general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
    through today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is
    forecast by late Saturday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated
    during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to occur by
    Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant
    low by late Sunday or early Monday.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL:  Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
    accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern portions of
    Baja California Sur. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
    flash floods.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    


    Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 3-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ25 KNHC 151442
    TCMEP5
    
    TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019
    1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
    34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W AT 15/1500Z
    AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.6W
    
    FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 108.8W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY
    
    
    


    Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3-Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ45 KNHC 151445
    TCDEP5
    
    Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
    800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019
    
    The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja
    California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the
    past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however,
    recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
    center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective
    canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged
    35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears
    to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore
    increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond.
    
    The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its
    structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed
    that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight,
    however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be
    reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact
    consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to
    strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little
    intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical
    intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC
    forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds
    are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond
    nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and
    it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time.
    
    Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is
    forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or
    north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a
    mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
    trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
    There has been little change in the track guidance since the last
    forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of
    the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center
    reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an
    adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track
    forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west.
    
    Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
    southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
    few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
     24H  16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
     36H  17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
     48H  17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
     72H  18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    


    Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019
    
    000
    FOPZ15 KNHC 151443
    PWSEP5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3          
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019               
    1500 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR      
    LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
    CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    15N 110W       34 42  16(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
    15N 110W       50  4   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
     
    20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)   8(11)  31(42)   4(46)   X(46)   X(46)
    20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
    20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   6( 7)  28(35)  13(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
    ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
    ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
    


    Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics- Tropical Storm Raymond 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 14:46:28 GMT

    Tropical Storm Raymond 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 15:24:19 GMT
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