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2014 Hurricane Names


See below for the overview of all current storms:

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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 01 Aug 2014 00:24:22 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312342
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Summary for Tropical Storm ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)- ...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM LAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 31 the center of ISELLE was located near 12.7, -122.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm ISELLE Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 312035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST.  ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 312034
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 121.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 122.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 



Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 312036
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

Deep convection has been wrapping up quickly during the past few
hours near the low pressure system located near 122W, and TAFB and
SAB have both provided Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt.  In
addition, a partial 1800 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the low is
already producing winds to tropical storm force in the eastern
semicircle.  Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Iselle, and the maximum winds are conservatively set at 35 kt.

With sea surface temperatures ahead of Iselle running between
27-28C and vertical shear not expected to be a significant limiting
factor, the storm is forecast to strengthen for at least the next 3
days.  The strengthening rate could be quick for the next day or so,
with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 44 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in winds by this time tomorrow.  The
SHIPS guidance is the most aggressive of the intensity models and
brings Iselle to hurricane status within the next 24-36 hours.  The
NHC official intensity forecast is not as high as the SHIPS model,
but since the environment looks favorable for strengthening, it does
lie a little above the intensity consensus ICON.

Iselle is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from northwestern Mexico southwestward to near 20N140W, and the
cyclone's estimated initial motion is 295/9 kt.  In general, ridging
is expected to maintain a relatively steady west-northwestward
motion for the next several days.  Some slight decrease in forward
speed is possible by day 4 when a weakness develops within the ridge
near 135W and ridging strengthens near the Hawaiian Islands.  The
track guidance is tightly clustered for this forecast, and the NHC
track forecast lies very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 122.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 312035
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014               
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



Tropical Storm ISELLE Graphics- Tropical Storm ISELLE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2014 20:36:59 GMT

Tropical Storm ISELLE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 01:27:44 GMT
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