Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines(For our full hurricane and tropical storm news coverage view our hurricane news page.)
Join our Hurricane Forums to discuss the season and storms.
"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
2 days, until the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.-The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 114.8W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 114.8 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292056 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Corrected to change NHC model to NHC model guidance Convective banding features have increased since the previous advisory, and a tight banding eye feature has occasionally appeared in visible satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values are T4.3/72 kt. Based on these data, Andres has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Andres has made the anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/06 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about the next 36-48 hours as the hurricane moves around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across mainland Mexico and Baja California. The ridge is forecast to gradually build westward after 72 hours, forcing Andres to turn back toward the west-northwest. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing scenario, and the guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, the official forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track. Despite moderate northerly vertical wind shear, Andres has maintained a fairly impressive outflow pattern. However, the 850-200 mb vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to around 15 kt during the next 24 hours, followed by decreasing shear at 36 to 48 hours. Now that Andres has established better inner-core convection and a possible eye feature, at least modest strengthening should occur during the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, decreasing sea surface temperatures and cooler and more stable low-level air lying just to the northwest of the hurricane should begin to affect Andres. Visible satellite imagery already indicates that cold air stratocumulus clouds are being advected into the northwestern portion of the outer circulation, which should mitigate the otherwise favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, a steady decrease in the intensity should occur after 72 hours, despite the low vertical wind shear regime through which the cyclone will be moving. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is above the intensity consensus model ICON and close to the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292036 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ends today. Therefore, this is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. Since 1994 Hurricane.com has been providing tropical cyclone related information for the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Our philosophy has been to provide timely, relevant, and useful information in a format that provides the most information in the least bandwidth intensive format.