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"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 01 Aug 2014 00:24:22 GMT
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 312035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 122.3W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 312034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.3W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 122.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312036 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014 Deep convection has been wrapping up quickly during the past few hours near the low pressure system located near 122W, and TAFB and SAB have both provided Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt. In addition, a partial 1800 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the low is already producing winds to tropical storm force in the eastern semicircle. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Iselle, and the maximum winds are conservatively set at 35 kt. With sea surface temperatures ahead of Iselle running between 27-28C and vertical shear not expected to be a significant limiting factor, the storm is forecast to strengthen for at least the next 3 days. The strengthening rate could be quick for the next day or so, with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 44 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds by this time tomorrow. The SHIPS guidance is the most aggressive of the intensity models and brings Iselle to hurricane status within the next 24-36 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast is not as high as the SHIPS model, but since the environment looks favorable for strengthening, it does lie a little above the intensity consensus ICON. Iselle is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from northwestern Mexico southwestward to near 20N140W, and the cyclone's estimated initial motion is 295/9 kt. In general, ridging is expected to maintain a relatively steady west-northwestward motion for the next several days. Some slight decrease in forward speed is possible by day 4 when a weakness develops within the ridge near 135W and ridging strengthens near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance is tightly clustered for this forecast, and the NHC track forecast lies very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.7N 122.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 312035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG