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2014 Hurricane Names


See below for the overview of all current storms:

NOAA Satellite image Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes
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Hurricane Satellite Water Vapor Loop
Hurricane Satellite Eastern Caribbean, Enhanced
Caribbean Satellite

Pacific Satellite
Pacific Satellite
Pacific Satellite
Pacific Satellite

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"Run from the water; hide from the wind."

The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Recent Headlines

(For our full hurricane and tropical storm news coverage view our hurricane news page.)
Join our Hurricane Forums to discuss the season and storms.

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220544
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area
moving over the Leeward Islands remains limited and disorganized.
Interaction of the low with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will
likely inhibit significant development through tonight. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for
development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern
Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or by early next week. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected
across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands today, and over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Saturday. Interests in those islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 22 Aug 2014 07:39:55 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220536
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
850 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on newly formed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located a few
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)- ...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of KARINA was located near 14.8, -136.5 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 37-Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 220236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...KARINA DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 136.5W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 37-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 220235
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 136.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 136.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 



Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 37-Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 220236
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Deep convection has continued to develop near the center of Karina,
especially in the southern semicircle, and the low-level center is
embedded in the middle of the more circular cloud shield. Two
earlier ASCAT passes showed 50 kt and 52 kt peak surface winds to
the southeast of the center, so the intensity has been bumped up to
55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt based on microwave
satellite positions over the past several hours. After nearly three
days of saying the same thing in our discussions, there isn't much
more to add. Karina will gradually get pulled eastward and
northeastward by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, as
the latter cyclone passes to the northeast of Karina in 2-3 days.
The majority of the NHC track guidance is now indicating a
considerably slower forward speed on Days 4 and 5 as Karina weakens
over cold water and becomes more vertically shallow. The official
advisory track is similar to but a little faster than the consensus
model TVCE out of respect for the faster GFS model.

Recent microwave images continue to show a partial eyewall
structure. The vertical shear is forecast to subside to around 5 kt
during the next 12 hours, so there is a brief window of opportunity
for Karina to strengthen. However, the vertical shear is forecast to
increase again at 24 hours and beyond as the cyclone begins to move
over cooler water. This combination of unfavorable conditions should
induce gradual weakening, with the Karina becoming a non-convective
remnant low pressure by 96 hours when the cyclone is moving over
22-23C sea-surface temperatures and into a much cooler and drier
airmass. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity
consensus model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 14.8N 136.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 220236
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics- Tropical Storm KARINA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 02:37:43 GMT

Tropical Storm KARINA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 07:26:45 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm LOWELL (EP2/EP122014)- ...LOWELL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of LOWELL was located near 20.9, -122.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm LOWELL Public Advisory Number 17-Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220243
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

...LOWELL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 122.8W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Advisory Number 17-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220242
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  75 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 122.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 



Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 17-Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220246
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Lowell as now weakening as about half of the circulation is over
sea surface temperatures of 26C or colder.  While microwave imagery
continues to show a 75 n mi wide eye, the eyewall convection has
warmed and become asymmetric.  Satellite intensity estimates are now
55 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB.  The initial intensity is
therefore decreased to 60 kt.

The storm is now moving 325/5.  The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged, as Lowell should move a little faster toward the
northwest due to a ridge rebuilding to the east and north of the
cyclone.  Late in the period a shallower Lowell should be steered
more toward the west-northwest by the low-level ridge to the north.
There is no significant change to the track guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track lies close to the previous
track and near the center of the guidance envelope.

Lowell is expected to remain in a light shear environment for the
next few days, with the intensity being controlled by decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track.  The new intensity
forecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for Lowell
to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.  It is possible that the
associated convection could dissipate earlier than currently
forecast, with Lowell briefly becoming a gale-force post-tropical
low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 20.9N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven




Tropical Storm LOWELL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220243
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    



Tropical Storm LOWELL Graphics- Tropical Storm LOWELL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 02:48:19 GMT

Tropical Storm LOWELL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:06:31 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132014)- ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 12.4, -99.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220253
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 99.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ITS STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014
ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCB

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  99.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  98.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  99.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


NNNN


Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220255
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with
scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low
pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past
several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near
the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a
tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is
supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT
overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has
been expanding.

The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix
positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly
clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving
west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout the forecast period.  This is due to a
strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and
northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the
consensus model TVCE.

The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic
and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The
official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as
aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category
4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the
intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in
48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 12.4N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ACAPULCO       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)  26(54)   4(58)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   2(26)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  32(37)  10(47)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN


Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Graphics- Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 04:25:43 GMT

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:07:16 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Low pressure about 640 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, is moving west slowly. Isolated thunderstorms periodically continue to develop near the low, but are showing little sign of organization. Conditions are conducive for only limited development over the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
Since 1994 Hurricane.com has been providing tropical cyclone related information for the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Our philosophy has been to provide timely, relevant, and useful information in a format that provides the most information in the least bandwidth intensive format.

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