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2014 Hurricane Names


See below for the overview of all current storms:

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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010535
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 01 Nov 2014 06:05:04 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010537
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have weakened during the past few hours.
Although upper-level winds are forecast to be generally favorable
for the next day or two, dry air in the vicinity of the system
should limit significant development while it moves toward the west
or west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low..10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)- ...VANCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 9.5, -101.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 8-Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 010232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 101.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH VANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 8-Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 010232
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N 101.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 



Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 8-Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010236
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Most of the available intensity analyses indicate that Vance has
weakened since the previous advisory and is barely holding on to
tropical cyclone status at that. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, 30 kt,
and 33 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.

Visible and microwave fix positions over the past few hours suggest
that Vance has been moving slowly westward or just south of due
west, so the initial motion estimate is now 270/05 kt. Otherwise,
there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. A general westward motion should continue through
Saturday, followed by a turn to the west-northwest and northwest on
Sunday as Vance moves around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. As a
mid-tropospheric trough approaches Baja California on Monday, Vance
is forecast to move northward, followed by a turn and acceleration
toward the northeast on Tuesday. The latest model guidance is in
better agreement for this forecast cycle and is more tightly packed
as well. Therefore, the new NHC forecast track is basically just an
update of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the TVCE
consensus track model.

Although the convective cloud pattern of Vance has eroded
significantly during the past several hours, a small burst of deep
convection has recently developed over the center. Overall, however,
the cyclone has maintained a well-developed low-level wind field.
Dry mid-level air that has been plaguing Vance from the outset is
expected to give way to a more moist environment in the 12-48 hour
time period while the vertical wind shear remains rather low at less
than 5 kt. The result is that Vance is forecast to gradually
strengthen and become a hurricane by late Sunday. By 72 hours and
beyond, southwesterly vertical shear is expected to sharply increase
ahead of the aforementioned trough, causing the cyclone to rapidly
weaken. However, it is worth noting that Vance could reach a higher
peak intensity between the 48- and 72-hour periods before the
weakening trend begins. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory forecast, and is a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF
intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z  9.5N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z  9.5N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8-Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 010232
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
0300 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  19(37)   1(38)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  18(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics- Tropical Storm VANCE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 02:33:18 GMT

Tropical Storm VANCE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Nov 2014 03:04:59 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.
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