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    2019 Hurricane Names

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    Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 201713
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


    There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Oct 2019 17:50:27 GMT


    Hurricane Advisory 1
    Hurricane Advisory 2
    Hurricane Advisory 3
    Hurricane Advisory 4
    Hurricane Advisory 5

    Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


    NHC Eastern North Pacific

    Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

    Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 201729
    TWOEP

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2019

    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Priscilla, located less than a hundred miles south-southeast
    of Manzanillo, Mexico.

    A small area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles
    east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development should be
    slow to occur while this system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10
    mph during the next couple of days. This system is expected
    to move into the central Pacific basin by tonight or early Monday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Priscilla are issued under WMO header WTPZ34
    KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on
    Priscilla are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS
    header MIATCMEP4.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


    Summary for Tropical Storm Priscilla (EP4/EP192019)- ...PRISCILLA JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 the center of Priscilla was located near 18.6, -104.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    Tropical Storm Priscilla Public Advisory Number 2A-Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ34 KNHC 201745
    TCPEP4
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
    100 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
    
    ...PRISCILLA JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...
    ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
    FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.6N 104.0W
    ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF TECOMAN MEXICO
    ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
    located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
    moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
    expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
    center of Priscilla will make landfall this afternoon and move
    inland this evening.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Priscilla moves
    inland. Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
    accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
    across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
    southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
    produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.
    
    WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
    area later today.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    


    Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 2-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ24 KNHC 201439
    TCMEP4
    
    TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.0W AT 20/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   6 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.0W AT 20/1500Z
    AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.0W
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.0W
    
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/1800Z
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    
    
    


    Tropical Storm Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 2-Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
    
    000
    WTPZ44 KNHC 201440
    TCDEP4
    
    Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
    1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019
    
    Deep convection, with some overshooting cloud tops to -90 deg C, has
    continued to develop and expand since the previous advisory. Most of
    the convective cloud mass has been displaced into the western
    semicircle due to modest easterly to southeasterly vertical wind
    shear. However, the cold cloud canopy has expanded eastward over the
    center during the past couple of hours, suggesting that the cyclone
    is becoming better organized and has also strengthened. The initial
    intensity of 35 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind data that
    showed 32-33 kt in the southwestern quadrant, along with the much-
    improved satellite signature since the time of the ASCAT passes. The
    35-kt intensity is also supported by recent satellite intensity
    estimates of T2.5/35 kt and T2.3/33 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT,
    respectively. Thus, the cyclone was upgraded to Tropical Storm
    Priscilla at 1200 UTC.
    
    Priscilla is moving a little west of due north or 355/6 kt. The
    small cyclone is expected to move generally northward around the
    western extent of a deep-layer ridge that is oriented east-to-west
    across the Bay of Campeche and south-central Mexico. This slow
    motion should bring the center of Priscilla inland over southwestern
    Mexico late this afternoon or early evening. The latest NHC model
    guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no
    significant changes to the previous track forecast were required.
    
    Priscilla will be moving over SSTs in excess of 29 deg C and into an
    upper-level environment of gradually decreasing shear, so some
    additional slight strengthening will be possible before landfall
    occurs in about 12 hours. However, the peak intensity likely will
    not be much higher than 40 kt. After moving inland, Priscilla will
    rapidly weaken and dissipate due to the rugged mountainous terrain
    of southwestern Mexico.
    
    The primary threat with Tropical Storm Priscilla will be heavy
    rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
    over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  20/1500Z 18.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  21/0000Z 19.0N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR MEXICAN COAST
     24H  21/1200Z 19.7N 104.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    


    Tropical Storm Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2-Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019
    
    000
    FOPZ14 KNHC 201439
    PWSEP4
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019               
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
    LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    BARRA NAVIDAD  34  5   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
     
    MANZANILLO     34 10   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
    


    Tropical Storm Priscilla Graphics- Tropical Storm Priscilla 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 17:46:25 GMT

    Tropical Storm Priscilla 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Oct 2019 15:24:28 GMT
    ============================
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