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2016 Hurricane Names


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The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.

The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.

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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information (Eastern Pacific below)


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 252334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
has changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and
south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Sep 2016 03:07:51 GMT


Hurricane Advisory 1
Hurricane Advisory 2
Hurricane Advisory 3
Hurricane Advisory 4
Hurricane Advisory 5

Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Storm Information


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E, located well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located near the Central Pacific basin about
1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system later this week. This low is expected to move little
during the next day or two and then turn northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Eighteen-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Eighteen-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182016)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 16.7, -120.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3-Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 260242
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WELL OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 120.1W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 120.1
West.  The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7
mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northeast or northeast is
expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3-Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 260242
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.6N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 120.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 


Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3-Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260243
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
last several hours.  The center of the system is partially exposed
on the west side of a convective band.  Satellite images also show
a pronounced dry slot to the west and northwest of the center.  The
Dvorak classifications remain T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt
from SAB, and based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is
held at 30 kt.

Some slight strengthening is possible overnight or on Monday while
the system remains over warm water and in an environment of light to
moderate shear.  After that time, the environment should become less
conducive with southwesterly shear increasing to more than 20 kt in
about 24 hours, which will likely end the opportunity for
strengthening.  The system is forecast to cross the 26-deg-C
isotherm in 36 to 48 hours, and as a result, it should become a
remnant low by day 3.  The global models show the remnant low
dissipating by the end of the forecast period, and that is reflected
in the official forecast.  The new intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous one and is in good agreement with the latest
intensity model consensus.

The center of the depression has wobbled a bit to the west of the
previous track, and the current motion estimate is 345/6 kt. A large
cut-off mid- to upper-level low over northwestern Mexico is expected
to drift southwestward during the next day or two.  This should
cause the system to turn north-northeastward to northeastward on
Monday, and continue in that general direction through mid-week.
Once the system becomes a shallow remnant low, a turn to the
west-northwest is predicted, following the low-level trade wind
flow.  The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous
one, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 17.2N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 19.9N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 22.6N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z 24.6N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3-Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 260243
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016               
0300 UTC MON SEP 26 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               


Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics- Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2016 02:44:28 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2016 03:04:37 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to be found
within a broad area of low pressure about 1200 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island. Any development of this disturbance
should be slow to occur for the next couple of days. This system
is expected to move west- northwestward during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday
afternoon.



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