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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.-The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.


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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Andres, located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Andres are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone formation during the
next few days while the system moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. However, these winds should become more conducive for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)- ...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri May 29 the center of ANDRES was located near 12.8, -114.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 7-Issued at 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...ANDRES STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located
near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 114.8 West.  Andres is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 7-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 292036
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 114.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 


Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 7-Issued at 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292056
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Corrected to change NHC model to NHC model guidance

Convective banding features have increased since the previous
advisory, and a tight banding eye feature has occasionally appeared
in visible satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite estimates
are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS
ADT values are T4.3/72 kt. Based on these data, Andres has been
upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Andres has made the anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the
initial motion estimate is now 310/06 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for about the next 36-48 hours as the
hurricane moves around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
located across mainland Mexico and Baja California. The ridge is
forecast to gradually build westward after 72 hours, forcing
Andres to turn back toward the west-northwest. The NHC model
guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing scenario, and
the guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast
track. As a result, the official forecast track is just an update
and extension of the previous advisory track.

Despite moderate northerly vertical wind shear, Andres has
maintained a fairly impressive outflow pattern. However, the 850-200
mb vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to
around 15 kt during the next 24 hours, followed by decreasing shear
at 36 to 48 hours. Now that Andres has established better inner-core
convection and a possible eye feature, at least modest strengthening
should occur during the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, decreasing
sea surface temperatures and cooler and more stable low-level air
lying just to the northwest of the hurricane should begin to affect
Andres. Visible satellite imagery already indicates that cold
air stratocumulus clouds are being advected into the northwestern
portion of the outer circulation, which should mitigate the
otherwise favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, a steady
decrease in the intensity should occur after 72 hours, despite the
low vertical wind shear regime through which the cyclone will be
moving. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and is above the intensity consensus model ICON and close
to the SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 12.8N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 292036
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015               
2100 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  


Hurricane ANDRES Graphics- Hurricane ANDRES 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 May 2015 20:38:11 GMT

Hurricane ANDRES 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 01:49:43 GMT

CPHC

Activity in the Central Pacific Hurricane basin

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook- SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ends today. Therefore, this is the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
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