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"Run from the water; hide from the wind."
The Atlantic Hurricane season started on June 1.
The Pacific Hurricane season started on May 15.
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 221121
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Sep 2014 11:41:53 GMT
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220831 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014 ...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 113.8W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220831 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 113.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 113.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220832 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014 Polo has been devoid of significant deep convection for about 10 hours now. Satellite images show that the cyclone consists of a tight swirl of low-level clouds with a few deeper clouds located over 100 n mi west of the center near the mid-level remnants. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, following the latest Dvorak classifications, making Polo a tropical depression. Continued weakening is expected while the cyclone remains in an environment of strong shear, dry air, and over relatively cool waters. If deep convection does not return soon, Polo will likely be declared a remnant low later today. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The depression has moved west-southwestward during the past few hours, but a longer term motion is 270/7. A slower westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the southwest on Tuesday while the shallow system is steered by a low-level ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is south of the previous one, mainly to account for the initial position, and is near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 22.5N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220831 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC MON SEP 22 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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