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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;617225
WTPZ35 KNHC 060232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hector Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...HECTOR ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 139.2W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Hector.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 139.2 West. Hector is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A motion toward the
west-northwest at an increased forward speed is expected through
Monday night, followed by a westward motion Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific
basin during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Hector is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
tonight and Monday.  After that, gradual weakening is forecast
Monday night through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Hector.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header
WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

Expires:No;;617250
WTPZ45 KNHC 060233
TCDEP5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Hector has changed little in organization since the previous special
advisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the
115-125 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 120 kt.  The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area
of cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60
h, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the
forecast period.  There are two caveats to this forecast, however.
The first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and
the HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could
occur from 96-120 h.  Second, the environment of light easterly
shear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to
evolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more
intense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating.

The hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models
have been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12.  The
subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it
west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next
24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the
Hawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track
guidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new
forecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the
Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the
Hawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian
Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For
additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in
Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast
Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Hector.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning
at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO,
and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;617224
WTPZ25 KNHC 060232
TCMEP5

HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102018
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HECTOR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 139.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 139.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 139.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HECTOR.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER
WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




 

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