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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;871522
WTPZ35 KNHC 060238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h).  The system is expected to turn toward the west or west-
southwest at about the same forward speed during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Xavier is
expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Xavier will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening and should subside
on Tuesday morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Landsea



 

Expires:No;;871573
WTPZ45 KNHC 060239
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

Deep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve
hours.  Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry
mid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system
during the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep
convection will make a comeback.  Therefore, Xavier is now
considered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last
advisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Despite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well-
pronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few
visible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming
that some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the
ASCAT scatterometer several hours ago.  Continued gradual weakening
is very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by
Tuesday night and dissipate in about three days.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around
5 kt.  The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest
during the next couple of days until dissipation, under the
influence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier.

For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;871513
WTPZ25 KNHC 060237
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP252018
0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  15SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




 

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