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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;617575
WTPZ35 KNHC 191432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...OTIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 128.6W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 128.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9
km/h).  A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next
day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Otis is likely to dissipate within 36
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Otis.  For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

Expires:No;;617640
WTPZ45 KNHC 191433
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Otis has been devoid of deep convection for about 10 hours, and
the cyclone only consists of a compact swirl of low-level clouds.
Therefore, Otis is now classified as a remnant low, and this is
last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center.  ASCAT data
from last night indicated that maximum winds were near 35 kt.
Assuming some spin down since that time due to the loss of deep
convection, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt.  Continued
weakening due to cool SSTs and dry air is expected, and Otis is
expected to dissipate in a day or so.

The remnant low has turned to the west in the low-level trade wind
flow.  A west to west-southwest motion is expected until the system
dissipates.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 19.0N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;617477
WTPZ25 KNHC 191431
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 128.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 128.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 128.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OTIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




 

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