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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;976857
WTPZ34 KNHC 181432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...MARIO STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 111.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 111.0 West. Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is
expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward
speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly
stationary from early Friday through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected and Mario
is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

Expires:No;;976860
WTPZ44 KNHC 181433
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has
become better defined overnight.  Both GPM and SSMI overpasses
reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned
with the low-level center.  This places the center well within the
convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery.  Based on
this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is
raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate
and UW/CIMSS ADT.  Mario has managed to fight off moderate
northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm
SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is
forecast.  The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory
in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24
hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm
could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in
the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow
weakening.

Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it
northwestward during the next day or so.  After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical
models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast
and north of Mario.  For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less
interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official
forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The
medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more
uncertain than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;976856
WTPZ24 KNHC 181432
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 111.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 


 

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