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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;162572
WTPZ34 KNHC 190231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Carlotta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 103.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight
into Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, the center will be
near or over the southwest coast of Mexico tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 mph (35 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is
expected to dissipate on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated
higher amounts of 10 inches possible.  These rains are likely to
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of higher terrain.  Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero
and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
amounts of 4 inches are forecast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Carlotta. For additional information on the remnant low,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



 

Expires:No;;162825
WTPZ44 KNHC 190235
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

A 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level
circulation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was
either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast
of Mexico.  For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the
low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The
upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has
continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the
circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather
amorphous-looking and disorganized.  Based on the disheveled
appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low
pressure system with 20-kt winds.

The initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt.  Steering currents are
weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent
Carlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high
mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system
is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico
for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the
monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday.

Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of
convection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind
shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from
regenerating into a tropical cyclone.

Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of
tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to
produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days.  Consult products
issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information.

This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  For additional information on the remnant low...
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;162471
WTPZ24 KNHC 190231
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042018
0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 103.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CARLOTTA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




 

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