Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;384240
WTPZ44 KNHC 130226
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008
ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ONCE-POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABSENT
FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS NEAR THE CENTER...AND HERNAN NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
30 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  A SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS.  
HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SMALL BEND TO
THE WEST IN THE LONGER-TERM AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW.  
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERNAN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 18.2N 134.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.9N 135.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 137.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 138.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 140.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 


 
	

More information

Expires:No;;384239
WTPZ24 KNHC 130226
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
0300 UTC WED AUG 13 2008
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 134.8W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 134.8W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 134.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 135.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 137.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.9N 138.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 140.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 134.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE