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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;045076
WTPZ34 KNHC 141435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Four-E was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 115.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near
13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward
speed are expected by tonight, with this motion continuing on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Monday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on overnight
observations from Clarion Island, Mexico is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Beven



 

Expires:No;;045180
WTPZ44 KNHC 141437
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Former Tropical Depression Four-E has been producing only small
bursts of convection for the past 18 h or so.  The system is moving
over progressively cooler water and into a more stable air mass, so
re-development of organized convection appears unlikely.  Thus, the
system is being downgraded to a remnant low pressure area.  The
global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate by
36 h at the latest, and the NHC forecast follows this scenario.

The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt.  A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the
west later today, with this general motion continuing until
dissipation.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.  For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 18.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  15/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/1200Z 18.6N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 18.5N 121.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;045056
WTPZ24 KNHC 141435
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




 

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