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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;025577
WTPZ34 KNHC 210234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Priscilla Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...PRISCILLA DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 104.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Priscilla were located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 104.7 West. The remnants are
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The remnants of Priscilla are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15
inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan
in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Priscilla.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

Expires:No;;611146
WTPZ44 KNHC 210234
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Priscilla Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The rugged terrain of Mexico has taken a toll on Priscilla.  Surface
observations indicate that the system no longer has a closed
surface circulation, and therefore this is the last advisory
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Even though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is
still a fair amount of deep convection associated with the
remnant trough over portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico.  Since the surface trough is expected to linger for another
couple of days over southwestern Mexico, there remains a significant
threat of heavy rains and flash flooding over that region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 20.0N 104.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;025572
WTPZ24 KNHC 210233
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192019
0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 104.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PRISCILLA.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




 

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