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Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;520298
WTPZ33 KNHC 120836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...PAUL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 127.4W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 127.4 West. Paul is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
day or two.  A turn toward the west-southwest or southwest is
possible by the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken over the next
several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



 

Expires:No;;520326
WTPZ43 KNHC 120837
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018

For the first time since 14 August, the northeast Pacific has no
tropical cyclones. Paul has lacked organized deep convection for
over 12 hours and has therefore been declared a remnant low. The
initial intensity is still 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from around
0500 UTC which showed a few wind vectors between 25 and 30 kt, but
weakening should resume soon due to the lack of deep convection. The
remnant low is moving west at around 8 kt, and a west to
west-southwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next few days until dissipation occurs later this week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paul. For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 22.3N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;520297
WTPZ23 KNHC 120836
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182018
0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 127.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY




 

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