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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;877649
WTPZ32 KNHC 170232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Tara Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Tara were located near
latitude 20.0 North, longitude 105.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The remnants of Tara are expected to produce additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over the Mexican states of Colima and
western Jalisco, through tonight, with isolated maximum storm total
amounts of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



 

Expires:No;;877680
WTPZ42 KNHC 170233
TCDEP2

Remnants Of Tara Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Data from several recent microwave overpasses, last-light visible
imagery, and surface observations from Mexico indicate that Tara no
longer has a well-defined surface center. The mid-level center of
the former tropical cyclone appeared to move inland earlier this
evening, though it is unclear whether the surface center made it
that far. Regardless, the high terrain of Mexico has caused the
surface circulation to open into a trough of low pressure and
dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Tara. Although the
remnant trough will likely produce intermittent convection near the
coast of Mexico tonight, continued close proximity to land should
prevent it from reorganizing into a tropical cyclone, and all of the
global models indicate that the remnants will gradual weaken over
the next 12 hours or so.

Although Tara is no longer a tropical depression, its remnants
could still cause heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA
 12H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;877648
WTPZ22 KNHC 170232
TCMEP2

REMNANTS OF TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 105.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 105.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 105.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY




 

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