Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;088400
WTPZ31 KNHC 192042
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009
 
...MARTY NOW A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS
FORMERLY MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
119.0 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES...930 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. 
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.9N 119.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 


 

Expires:No;;088403
WTPZ41 KNHC 192043
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009
 
MARTY HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. MARTY STILL HAS
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. AS MARTY MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW
DISSIPATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 22.9N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 


 

    

More information

Expires:No;;088389
WTPZ21 KNHC 192040
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 119.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 119.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 118.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 119.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN