Hurricane



 

 
 
 
 
 

Hurricane.com - Advisory



Expires:No;;560501
WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...FERNANDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 140.4W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 140.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general motion
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fernanda is expected to become a tropical depression
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

Expires:No;;560510
WTPZ41 KNHC 202036
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Fernanda is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds that
is currently devoid of deep convection.  The initial intensity is
reduced to 50 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and
it is again possible that this is generous.  While the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should increase, a combination
of continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air
should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast
period.  The cyclone is now forecast to become a depression in
about 24 h and a remnant low in about 36 h, and both of these events
could occur earlier if convection does not redevelop.  The new
intensity forecast also now calls for the system to degenerate to a
trough after 96 h, in agreement with all of the large-scale models
except the GFS.

The initial motion is now 280/11.  Fernanda is expected to move
west-northwestward to westward through the forecast period as the
increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by the low-level
trade winds.  The new forecast track is shifted a little to the
south of the previous forecast based on the current motion and the
premise that a weaker system will move more westward in the current
environment.  The new track now lies a little to the south of the
model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Fernanda.  Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header
WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 18.2N 140.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;560444
WTPZ21 KNHC 202034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 140.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 140.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO
HEADER WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




 

	

::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright �


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.