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Expires:No;;860968
WTNT35 KNHC 190232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 27.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce
was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 27.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south-southwest near 8
mph (13 km/h).  A southwestward motion is expected on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is
expected to dissipate within a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Joyce.  Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

More information

Expires:No;;861025
WTNT45 KNHC 190235
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

During the past couple of days, Joyce had been producing patches of
deep convection that would quickly shear off due to strong westerly
winds aloft.  Each convective burst appeared weaker than the
previous one, and during the past 12-18 hours, the circulation has
been nearly devoid of deep convection.  Therefore, Joyce no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The
initial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a recent
ASCAT pass around 2200Z that showed maximum winds in the 20-25 kt
range. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and
ultimately dissipate in a couple of days due to dry and stable air,
cool SSTs, and moderate to strong westerly shear.

Joyce is moving south-southwestward at 7 kt on the east side of a
low- to mid-level ridge.  A turn to the southwest is expected on
Wednesday as the ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and
that motion should continue until the remnant low dissipates.  The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 30.4N  27.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  19/1200Z 29.9N  28.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z 29.4N  29.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 28.9N  31.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 
	

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