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Expires:No;;840134
WTNT35 KNHC 240254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United
States southeast coast during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



 

More information

Expires:No;;840157
WTNT45 KNHC 240256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive
with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of
very deep convection.  Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane
this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt.
However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both
objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due
to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is
kept at 100 kt in this advisory.  During the next 24 hours while
Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm
waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be
a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same
intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the
hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then
begin.

Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between
the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging
southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is
forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving
slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge
slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies
and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track
guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude
34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to
the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and
with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast
well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and
the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance.
These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina
coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected
consensus HCCA.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  These swells will likely cause
dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next
week.  For more information, please monitor information from your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 27.0N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



 
	

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