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Expires:No;;045094
WTNT35 KNHC 180854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 39.5W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole
was located near latitude 47.1 North, longitude 39.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 31
mph (50 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast before the
post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by another low pressure area
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells associated with Nicole will affect the United
States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores
islands for the next few days, creating dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents.  These swells are also likely to reach Europe and
the northwest coast of Africa in a day or two.  Please refer to
products being issued by your local weather office for more
information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

More information

Expires:No;;045236
WTNT45 KNHC 180856
TCDAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016

Nicole is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North
Atlantic.  The circulation is becoming elongated with the remaining
deep convection in a band well to the east of the center.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a combination of
satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to complete extratropical
transition in the next 12 hours, the it should continue as a
vigorous extratropical storm through 36 hours before it is absorbed
by another extratropical low.

The initial motion is 030/27.  The cyclone should continue quickly
north-northeastward on the east side on a deep layer trough over
the Labrador Sea until the cyclone dissipates.

The main hazard associated with the post-tropical cyclone will
continue to be the large area of high seas.  Swells from the system
will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple
of days.

This is the last advisory on Nicole issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 47.1N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  18/1800Z 51.7N  36.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  19/0600Z 57.0N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1800Z 62.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



 
	

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