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Expires:No;;983838
WTNT34 KNHC 181751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by satellite and the Bermuda weather radar near latitude
32.4 North, longitude 67.2 West.  Humberto is now moving toward the
east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  This general motion with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
through Friday.  On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda.
A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 195 miles (315
km) based on satellite-derived surface wind data. A wind gust to
51 mph (82 km/h) recently occurred at the Bermuda airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds will occur on Bermuda through Thursday
morning. Outside preparations are becoming difficult or dangerous
and should be completed soon.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.  Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



 

More information

Expires:No;;977330
WTNT44 KNHC 181444
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a
reconnoiter of Humberto this morning found that the intensity of the
major hurricane had increased slightly, but that the inner-core 64-
and 50-kt wind fields had expanded significantly, now extending
outward up to at least 90 n mi and 110 n mi, respectively, in the
southeastern quadrant. During their pass through the southeastern
quadrant, the aircraft measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt,
but peak SFMR winds of only 97 kt. Given that convection is minimal
in that quadrant, the normal downward mixing is likely not
occurring, the intensity has only been increased to 105 kt. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 952 mb with a
dropsonde, which is close to the pressure of 954.2 mb with 30-kt
winds that NOAA buoy 41048 measured in the eye around 0930 UTC.

The initial motion estimate remains 065/14 kt. Humberto is beginning
to feel the effects of a deep-layer trough approaching from the
west, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate toward the
east-northeast through tonight, passing just north and northwest
of Bermuda, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
Thursday afternoon. By 48 hours or so, Humberto is forecast to turn
back toward the east-northeast and maintain that motion through day
5 as a ridge to the east of the cyclone weakens and flattens out.
The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one for
the first 36 hours, and then is a little faster and to the left of
the previous advisory thereafter, closer to the tightly packed
consensus track model guidance.

Humberto may have peaked in intensity based on the cloud pattern
in satellite imagery beginning to take on the appearance of an
extratropical cyclone. Thus, some fluctuations in strength could
occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, very strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane should disrupt the inner-core convection and organization,
resulting in steady weakening. By 72 hours, the global models
continue to show Humberto merging with a frontal system, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition by that
time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected-
consensus models HCCA and FSSE through the next 12-24 hours, and
then is above that guidance through the remainder of the forecast
period, closer to an average of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected on Bermuda from
late this afternoon through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force
winds expected overnight tonight. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 32.2N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart



 
	

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