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Expires:No;;301296
WTNT34 KNHC 240236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.6W
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area
Thursday morning.  In addition, interests in southwestern
Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday or Friday
night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight or
Thursday and a hurricane Friday or Friday night.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with
heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches
along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

More information

Expires:No;;301302
WTNT44 KNHC 240238
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi.  However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/2.  A weak mid-level
ridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move
on a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48-72 h,
and this motion should bring the center inland over southern Texas.
Later, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the
southwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains.
As a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and
move very slowly just inland of the coast.  There is a major spread
amongst the large-scale models from 72-120 h, with the UKMET
forecasting a slow northward motion into eastern Texas, the GFS a
southwestward motion over Texas, and the ECMWF a cyclonic loop that
moves the system back over the Gulf of Mexico.  Given the
uncertainty, the new forecast track shows a slow motion over
southern Texas during that time, with a change from the small right
turn of the previous forecast to a small left turn.  Overall, the
track lies a little to the right of the consensus models through 72
h.

An upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico appears to be weakening, and as this
happens Harvey should end up in a low shear environment.  This
should allow strengthening over deep warm water in the western Gulf
of Mexico.  The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly to show
Harvey explicitly becoming a hurricane in 48 h, and some additional
strengthening could occur between the 48 h point and landfall.
After landfall, Harvey is expected to weaken.  However, the
forecast track keeps the system close enough to the Texas coast
that this weakening is likely to be slower than normal.

Since Harvey has moved slower than anticipated during the past
6-12 h, warnings are not yet required for portions of the Texas
coast.  Warnings are likely to be issued sometime on Thursday.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions
of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday
through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High
Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the
next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website.  This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location.  Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 21.9N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 22.8N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 24.1N  94.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 25.4N  95.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 26.6N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 28.5N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/0000Z 28.5N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  29/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven



 
	

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