Hurricane



Headlines

 
 
 
 
 

Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;099485
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

More information

Expires:No;;099569
WTNT43 KNHC 021436
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical
cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The
center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud
shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired
frontal features.  The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is
a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a
low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds.  The global
models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland.  A
faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when
the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday.

The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt,
and this general motion should continue into Thursday.  After that
time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then
southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow.  The global
model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is
in closest to the ECMWF model.

Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United
Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the
United Kingdom Met Office.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic.  Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 44.4N  25.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  03/0000Z 48.6N  20.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/1200Z 52.8N  14.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/0000Z 54.0N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1200Z 52.5N   3.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



 
	

::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.