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Expires:No;;405193
WTNT33 KNHC 281438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

...COLD WATERS FINALLY TAKE THEIR TOLL ON PABLO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.8N 17.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo
was located near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 17.7 West. Pablo is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow north to
northwest motion is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. Gale-force winds, some of which are not directly
associated with Pablo, are expected to persist well to the north of
the cyclone through at least Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Pablo.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at:
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

$$
Forecaster Latto



 

More information

Expires:No;;405221
WTNT43 KNHC 281440
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection
near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and
showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now
become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to
35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the
scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force
winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with
Pablo.

The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over
the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger
mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the
Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 46.8N  17.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/0000Z 47.4N  17.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  29/1200Z 48.5N  18.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



 
	

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