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Expires:No;;928560
WTNT32 KNHC 160251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday.  Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon.  Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

More information

Expires:No;;928576
WTNT42 KNHC 160252
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection
near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and
the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.
Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an
attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a
cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal.  The
powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with
recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east
of the center.  Based on these data, the initial intensity remains
75 kt to account for undersampling.  The occluded low is forecast to
gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.
Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still
likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to
portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past
6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion
estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt.  Now that occlusion is
complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-
northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within
the next 12 hours.  That heading should continue for the ensuing day
or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of
Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.
The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from
the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
now that Ophelia has become post-tropical.  Local forecasts,
warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical
cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will
continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom Monday and Monday night.  Strong winds and heavy rain are
likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine
conditions.  For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the
United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 49.2N  13.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  16/1200Z 53.2N  10.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/0000Z 57.4N   5.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/1200Z 61.9N   0.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



 
	

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