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Expires:No;;543046
WTNT32 KNHC 160233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

...BERYL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 62.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl
was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 62.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 13
mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward
speed are expected tomorrow, with this motion continuing through
early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next
day or so, and the low is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown



 

More information

Expires:No;;543071
WTNT42 KNHC 160234
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

Dry air and shear has prevented the redevelopment of deep convection
for more than 12 hours, and what little convection Beryl had early
this morning was not very organized.  As a result, the system has
become post-tropical and this will be the final NHC advisory.  The
initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite intensity
estimate of 25-30 kt from TAFB.  Beryl is forecast to remain over
marginally warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream overnight, but shear and dry
air are expected to prevent organized deep convection from
returning.  After that time, the remnant low will be moving over
much colder waters and a gradual spin down is predicted.  The global
models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate near
southeastern Newfoundland on Tuesday.

Beryl is moving east-northeastward at a faster pace than before or
065/11.  The cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate over
the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within low- to mid-level
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The
track models are in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast
is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 38.6N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/1200Z 39.9N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0000Z 42.6N  57.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 45.5N  55.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



 
	

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