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Expires:No;;277563
WTNT32 KNHC 260251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

...OLGA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
effect.

Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings
associated with this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga
was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). Olga is forecast to move quickly northward to
north-northeastward on Saturday and then turn northeastward late
Saturday or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move up the Mississippi Valley tomorrow
and toward the Great Lakes later this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves over land Saturday
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier data from
an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and surface
observations over the northern Gulf of Mexico is 999 mb (29.50
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with Olga and its remnants should
spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone, along with rainfall ahead of
the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the
Central Gulf coast, is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches
across the Central Gulf coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and western Tennessee Valley through Saturday morning. These
rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley.

COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal
flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast.
Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for additional information.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Saturday
morning across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
and western Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information about heavy rainfall and wind gusts can be
found in storm summary products issued by the Weather Prediction
Center at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



 

More information

Expires:No;;863145
WTNT42 KNHC 260253
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga made by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone
becoming embedded within a cold front. Strong northwesterly flow was
observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga's center and a sharp
temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone.
It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any
significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface
observations suggest that either the front passes through the center
of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based
on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this
is the last NHC advisory.

Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas
associated the front are now considered to be representative of the
overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at
45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt
found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga's
strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday
morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi
Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great
Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated
before the end of the weekend.

Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated
tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical
Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible
tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information
specific to your area, please see products from your local weather
service office at weather.gov.

Key messages:

1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about
hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes
can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 27.8N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/1200Z 31.8N  90.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  27/0000Z 38.0N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/1200Z 43.5N  83.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



 
	

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