Hurricane.com - Advisory
Expires:No;;824789 WTNT32 KNHC 280249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 ...GUSTAV NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...325 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST TOMORROW AND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Expires:No;;824847 WTNT42 KNHC 280250 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND GFS...WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL...AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT. GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS...HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR...AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES...AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN