Hurricane.com - Advisory
Expires:No;;676382 WTNT31 KNHC 071156 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 700 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 ...IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD... AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE...AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280 MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN
More information
Expires:No;;672143 WTNT41 KNHC 070857 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IDA AND THE TROUGH DIFFER...MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...SHOW IDA TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY DAY 5 MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA... TURNING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW OFFICIAL THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN THE OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 50 KT IN 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON DAY 2 AS IDA ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA. THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.1N 84.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN