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Expires:No;;186923
WTNT31 KNHC 020231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

...EMILY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 78.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily
was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 78.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 9
mph (15 km/h), and a faster motion toward the northeast is forecast
for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The cyclone should weaken gradually over the next day or two.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake



 

More information

Expires:No;;738953
WTNT41 KNHC 020232
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

The center of Emily has become exposed again tonight, with satellite
images showing the skeletal circulation well to the west of any
distant convection.  The shallow cyclone hasn't really produced any
organized deep convection in about 24 hours, with only small puffs
that quickly fade out due to dry air and shear.  In addition, the
cyclone is embedded within a frontal zone, and no analysis shows
Emily with a warm core.  Given these considerations, Emily has lost
the requisite characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and is being
declared post-tropical.  Thus, this is the last advisory on Emily.

The cyclone has taken a turn to the north-northeast but should
resume a northeast motion overnight ahead of a deep-layer trough.
The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the left based on the
initial position only, with the models in good agreement on the
general northeast course.  Emily should gradually weaken due to
increasing shear and dry air aloft, and acquire more extratropical
characteristics on Wednesday.  Dissipation of the low is forecast
within 3 days as it opens up into a trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 30.9N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  02/1200Z 32.3N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  03/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  03/1200Z 35.0N  70.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/0000Z 36.0N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



 
	

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