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Expires:No;;206604
WTNT31 KWNH 310841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alberto Advisory Number  25
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL012018
500 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...ALBERTO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO EXIT
NORTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FADING NEAR ITS CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.9N 83.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF ALPENA MICHIGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...55 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for the western Carolinas,
northwest Virginia, and far eastern West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Alberto, now a wave of low pressure along a frontal zone, was
located near latitude 44.9 North, longitude 83.9 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 35
mph (55 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until it
attempts to merge with an approaching frontal wave in southeast
Ontario early this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
higher amounts, will be possible within the convergent flow
well to the southeast of Alberto across the western Carolinas and
near the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia this morning. Isolated to
scattered flash flooding will remain a possibility across this
area.

WIND:  Wind gusts approaching tropical-storm force (39 mph or 62
km/h) will fade this morning across southeast Lower Michigan as
the system pulls away to the northeast.


For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Roth


 

More information

Expires:No;;699180
WTNT41 KNHC 290843
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Radar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving
north-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the
associated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar
data.  During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained
winds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity
is set to 25 kt.  Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over
land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into
a remnant low in 24 h or less.  The low is expected to dissipate
completely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests
this could occur earlier.

Alberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the
east and southeast over the next couple of days.  After that, the
system should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The new track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model
consensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on
Alberto.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee today.

2.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
today.

3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 32.3N  86.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1800Z 34.1N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0600Z 36.8N  87.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 39.8N  87.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 43.1N  85.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 49.5N  79.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



 
	

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