Hurricane.com - Advisory
Expires:No;;824897 WTNT31 KWNH 280256 TCPAT1 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 50 FOR REMNANTS OF FAY NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 ...REMNANTS OF FAY MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...FLORIDA...AND ALABAMA. AT 1100 PM EDT...03Z...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON KENTUCKY. THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 10 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 800 PM EDT ...ALABAMA... CLAYHATCHEE 5.9 E 15.27 HIGHLAND HOME 12.74 VALLEY 0.4 NNW 11.87 WETUMPKA 9.9 NNE 10.81 MEADOWBROOK 1.7 NE 10.50 LAKE PURDY 3.6 ENE 10.37 CLIO 0.2 SSW 10.27 CALERA 9.73 TROY 9.57 BIRMINGHAM INTL 7.28 ...FLORIDA... MELBOURNE/WINDOVER FARMS 27.65 CAPE CANAVERAL /USAF FIELD MILL 21/ 22.83 SEBASTIAN /SCRIPPS SPACE COAST/ 22.25 PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44 PALM BAY 1.0 NE 21.00 VIERA 20.75 HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70 MELBOURNE WFO 19.62 CAPE CANAVERAL/COCOA BEACH 19.01 SANFORD 2 ESE 18.27 ST MARKS 4 ESE 17.67 JACKSONVILLE/INTL APT 12.07 MONTICELLO 3.6 WSW 11.90 VERO BEACH/MUNI APT 11.34 WACISSA 1.1 SW 10.80 DAYTONA BEACH/REGIONAL APT 8.99 GAINESVILLE/REGIONAL APT 8.25 NAPLES/MUNICIPAL APT 7.96 FT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD 7.12 ...GEORGIA... THOMASVILLE 27.50 NEWTON 11 SW 13.50 COOLIDGE 3.2 SSW 12.03 ELMODEL 11.80 VALDOSTA 9 N 11.67 BLAKELY 10.85 MORGAN 5 NW 10.83 MILFORD 10.73 TIGER 1.7 S 10.00 IRON CITY 6 NE 9.54 ALBANY 1 N 8.68 FORT GAINES 13 ENE 8.48 BLUFFTON 0.2 N 8.35 FORT BENNING/COLUMBUS 6.77 SAVANNAH/HUNTER AAF 4.87 PEACHTREE CITY/ATL WFO 2.56 ...KENTUCKY... SCOTTSVILLE 5.5 NE 1.90 EUBANK 4.7 NE 1.80 LONDON-CORBIN ARPT 1.78 LEXINGTON/BLUE GRASS FLD 1.78 BRONSTON 2.7 WSW 1.75 GREENUP 7 WNW 1.73 ALBANY 1.62 FOUNTAIN RUN 5.7 NW 1.58 BRODHEAD 7.3 SSW 1.57 MONTICELLO 9.1 W 1.57 DIXON 1.14 JACKSON 1.04 TAYLORSVILLE 1.00 ...LOUISIANA... BATON ROUGE/SHERWOOD 4.49 MILLERVILLE 4.38 ZACHARY 4.20 SHENANDOAH 0.8 W 4.02 INNISWOLD 4 E 4.01 WALKER 1.1 N 3.93 DENHAM SPRINGS 3.91 GREENWELL SPRINGS 2 SW 3.79 VIDALIA 3.30 JACKSON 3.26 RESERVE 3.20 NEW ORLEANS/MSY 1.46 ...MISSISSIPPI... ACKERMAN 3 SE 7.87 NOXAPATER 1 N 6.80 DAMASCUS 1 SE 6.27 STATE UNIVERSITY 5.50 STARKVILLE 2.5 ENE 5.47 GHOLSON 8 W 5.12 CRAWFORD 5 W 5.07 TOPTON 4.88 PHILADELPHIA 5 N 4.87 BROOKSVILLE 2 NNE 4.59 TOOMSUBA 5 SE 4.53 PASCAGOULA 4.52 MERIDIAN/KEY FLD 4.45 ...NORTH CAROLINA... BURNSVILLE 9.4 SE 11.18 HARRISBURG 0.8 S 10.84 CONCORD 4.9 SW 10.30 CHARLOTTE 8.51 ASHEVILLE 5.32 CHAPEL HILL 4.77 WILMINGTON 4.53 FAYETTEVILLE 3.26 MONROE 2.94 HICKORY 2.93 RALEIGH/DURHAM 2.12 ...OHIO... HAMILTON APT 2.70 LANCASTER 1.18 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... LAKE WYLIE 2.3 SW 9.00 LOWRYS 3.6 ENE 7.66 SALEM 3.1 WNW 7.56 FORT MILL 3.5 ENE 6.86 CLEVELAND 8 WSW 6.24 BEAUFORT 6.11 MARIETTA 1.8 SW 5.09 MEGGETT 1.8 W 4.97 SALEM 0.1 SE 4.65 WALTERBORO 2 SW 4.33 HARDEEVILLE 13 S 4.25 CHARLESTON/MUNI APT 4.07 FOLLY BEACH 2.5 SW 3.96 WALHALLA 5 NW 3.94 GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG 3.14 COLUMBIA/METRO ARPT 3.10 ...TENNESSEE... DUNLAP 3.1 NW 8.84 RED BANK 3.4 NNE 7.87 SIGNAL MTN 1.2 WSW 7.75 GRAYSVILLE 0.1 NW 7.43 FAYETTEVILLE 8.8 S 6.08 CARTHAGE 0.1 W 5.30 COLUMBIA 0.9 SE 5.05 EAGLEVILLE 1 SE 4.39 SMYRNA 4.5 SSW 4.24 CHATTANOOGA/LOVELL FLD ASOS 4.41 KNOXVILLE 1.82 ...VIRGINIA... DANVILLE 6.03 ROANOKE/MUNI APT 3.77 WOOLWINE 0.4 SW 3.20 CAVE SPRINGS 2.4 SSW 3.00 HILLSVILLE 8.9 SE 2.46 LYNCHBURG 2.11 ...WEST VIRGINIA... BLUEFIELD 1.43 PARKERSBURG 1.44 HUNTINGTON 1.38 THE REMNANTS OF FAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MARYLAND. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...37.0 NORTH...83.2 WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...10 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON FAY. HEDGE FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 27/2100Z 37.0N 83.2W...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 28/1200Z 37.8N 82.5W...EXTRATROPICAL $$
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Expires:No;;706624 WTNT41 KNHC 240258 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.9N 87.1W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 24/1200Z 31.3N 88.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.2N 90.3W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB