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Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

Expires:No;;044781
ABPZ20 KNHC 050531
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since
earlier today near a low pressure area located about 550 miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  However, environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while the low moves northwestward at 5 to 10
mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


		
	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 050530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Fred, located more than a thousand miles
southwest of the Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This system is gradually becoming better
organized and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven



Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)- ...FRED REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.8, -40.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 25-Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

...FRED REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 40.1W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 40.1 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on
Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 25-Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 050232
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  40.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  40.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  39.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N  41.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N  42.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.3N  42.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N  41.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.5N  38.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N  33.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 36.0N  30.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N  40.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 


Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 25-Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050237
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

An ASCAT-A pass just before 0000 UTC showed a small area of 35-kt
winds northeast of Fred's center, and that is the basis for the
initial intensity, making Fred a tropical storm once again. The
central pressure has been adjusted upward to 1009 mb based on
observations from drifting buoy 13519, as it appears Fred is now
embedded in an environment of higher pressure.  Despite rather
hostile vertical shear, Fred has managed to maintain enough
organized deep convection during the past couple of days to stave
off post-tropical status. The latest burst of convection is now
moving away from the low-level center, but this bursting pattern
seems likely to continue for the next couple of days as the cyclone
moves over gradually warmer waters in moderate to strong shear.
Since Fred has survived this long, it seems less likely that the
cyclone will become post-tropical in the short term, and that is no
longer shown in the official forecast. However, given our limited
ability to predict convective scale changes, this still remains a
possibility.

Little significant change in intensity is shown in the first 48
hours, as the guidance shows Fred between 30 and 35 kt during that
time. Subsequently, as the shear weakens all of the guidance shows
at least some strengthening. The NHC forecast shows only a modest
re-intensification later in the period, given the possibility that
the circulation of Fred could open up or be absorbed in 4 or 5 days
as shown by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09, and Fred should begin to move
around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the
next couple of days and then turn northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies. This cycle the models have trended faster with the
forward speed of Fred, and have shown a northward shift after 48
hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for these
trends, but now lies on the right side of the guidance envelope at
days 3 through 5. Given the large spread at these time ranges, and
the possibility that Fred could be absorbed or dissipate late in the
period, the extended portion of the track forecast is of lower than
normal confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 22.8N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 23.2N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 23.9N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 25.3N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 27.1N  41.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 30.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 34.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 36.0N  30.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25-Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 050233
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  


Tropical Storm FRED Graphics- Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 02:33:57 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 03:07:51 GMT
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