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Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

Expires:No;;917126
ABPZ20 KNHC 242332
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms.  Satellite data indicates that a
well-defined surface circulation does not yet exist.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain conducive for development while
the system moves slowly northward, and a tropical depression is
expected to form on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
have become a little more organized this afternoon.  Any additional
development should be slow to occur for the next couple of days.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for further development of this disturbance by early next
week.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward during the
next couple of days and then turn northward as it approaches the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky


		
	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250517
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east-northeast of Bermuda, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system, and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)- ...KARL ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of KARL was located near 35.0, -58.0 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm KARL Public Advisory Number 43-Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

...KARL ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 58.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 845 MI...1365 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 58.0 West. Karl is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours,
and Karl is expected to be at hurricane intensity when it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.  The post-tropical cyclone will be
absorbed by a large extratropical low Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl will continue affecting Bermuda
through tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 43-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 250240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  58.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE  90SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  58.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N  59.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.2N  51.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 44.6N  41.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 120SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N  58.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 43-Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 250242
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

Karl continues to produce a large area of cold-topped convection
to the northeast of the center.  However, data from the NOAA P-3,
NOAA G-IV, and the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the
circulation is losing definition as the cyclone accelerates toward
the northeast.  The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a
combination of dropsonde, flight level, and SFMR winds from the
three planes, and the central pressure of 992 mb is based on data
from a Global Hawk dropsonde.  While Karl is expected to become
post tropical by 24 hours, it should intensify to a hurricane-force
system as it does so, and this is shown in the intensity forecast.
By 36 hours, the system should be absorbed into a larger
extratropical low to its northwest.

The initial motion estimate is now 055/25.  Karl should continue to
accelerate on a general northeastward heading ahead of a broad
deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the forward
speed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours.  The new NHC track
forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near the
middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 35.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 38.2N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 44.6N  41.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 250241
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Storm KARL Graphics- Tropical Storm KARL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 02:45:50 GMT

Tropical Storm KARL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 03:05:36 GMT

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA (AT3/AL132016)- ...POST-TROPICAL LISA LACKS DEEP CONVECTION... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of LISA was located near 25.8, -40.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Public Advisory Number 22-Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

000
WTNT33 KNHC 250238
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

...POST-TROPICAL LISA LACKS DEEP CONVECTION...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 40.8W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa
was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 40.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h).  A turn toward the north with little change in forward speed
is expected on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast for the next 48 hours and the
low-level remnants of Lisa are expected to dissipate within the
next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT2, WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, and available
on the Web at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky



Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Forecast Advisory Number 22-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

000
WTNT23 KNHC 250238
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  40.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  40.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  40.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.2N  42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.3N  42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.4N  42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N  40.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY




Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Forecast Discussion Number 22-Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

000
WTNT43 KNHC 250240
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

No deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between
1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of
convection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to
meet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical
cyclone.  Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have
been supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now
moved farther to the west of that feature.  In the absence of any
other synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep
convection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available
tonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt.  Without
any convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually
spin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a
deep-layer trough approaching from the west.

The low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure
system centered near the Azores.  The global models are in good
agreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next
day or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in
12-24 hours.  A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the
approaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates
entirely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 25.8N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/1200Z 27.2N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 31.4N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky



Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

000
FONT13 KNHC 250239
PWSAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ZELINSKY


Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Graphics- Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 02:41:26 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2016 03:06:11 GMT
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