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Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

Expires:No;;365112
ABPZ20 KNHC 212302
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Landsea


		
	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220150
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche

Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern
Bay of Campeche have increased and become better organized during
the past hour or two. If the current development trend continues,
tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this evening
or overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system
as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 the center of NINE was located near 19.4, -92.9 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO... WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 220254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  93.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N  92.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N  91.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N  90.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N  88.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N  86.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N  84.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N  83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  92.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220301
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection
associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and
northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours.
Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression.  Earlier
aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt.  The depression is over
warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the
system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours.  This
should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected
to to become a overnight or early Wednesday.  The cyclone should
weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night.
If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan
Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely
to prevent strengthening.  The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration
to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.

The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the
cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night.  After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is
likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF shows the tropical
cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the
depression a separate system.  For now, the NHC forecast shows a
weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 19.4N  92.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 19.4N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.4N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 19.4N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 19.4N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 19.0N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 18.5N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0000Z 18.5N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

000
FONT14 KNHC 220255
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014               
0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34 22   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)  11(15)   2(17)   1(18)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Tropical Depression NINE Graphics- Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 02:56:37 GMT

Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 03:04:44 GMT
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