Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;101505 ABPZ20 KNHC 012344 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. This disturbance is expected to move slowly northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricance Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five, located over the southwestern Gulf
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052014)- ...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 the center of FIVE was located near 20.5, -93.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory Number 1A-Issued at 700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
000 WTNT35 KNHC 012341 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014
000 WTNT25 KNHC 012035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 93.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 93.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 93.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014
000 WTNT45 KNHC 012036 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a well-defined center of circulation. The system has a curved band of deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Thus the system is being designated as a tropical depression at this time. The maximum winds reported by the aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt. Although the cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening. Dynamical models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36 hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall. After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The official wind speed forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus. The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11. The steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. The flow to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36 hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014
000 FONT15 KNHC 012036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TAMPICO MX 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2014 23:43:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2014 21:03:46 GMT