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Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

Expires:No;;101505
ABPZ20 KNHC 012344
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern
coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week.  This disturbance is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy
rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


		
	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricance Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052014)- ...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 the center of FIVE was located near 20.5, -93.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory Number 1A-Issued at 700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
700 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT25 KNHC 012035
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  93.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  93.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  93.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N  93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT45 KNHC 012036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

000
FONT15 KNHC 012036
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014               
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   6( 6)  24(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics- Tropical Depression FIVE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2014 23:43:06 GMT

Tropical Depression FIVE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2014 21:03:46 GMT
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