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Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

Expires:No;;892513
ABPZ20 KNHC 031136
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 3 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located more than 1450 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently upgraded Tropical
Storm Ivette, located about 850 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form near the southern coast of
Mexico late this weekend in association with the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Storm Earl after it moves across southern Mexico.
Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it
moves west-northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivette are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ivette are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Berg


		
	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250536
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1215 miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles northwest of
Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However, satellite images
indicate that the shower activity remains disorganized, and the low
continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds
are only marginally conducive for development, this system could
still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive
for development over the weekend when the system is near the central
or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rains are likely to
occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of
days, which could lead to possible flash floods and mudslides.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for
further details. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later this morning.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)- ...GASTON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 25 the center of GASTON was located near 19.5, -43.3 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 11-Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 250834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

...GASTON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 43.3W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 43.3 West.  Gaston is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast Friday night.

Data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft data is 988
mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 11-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 250833
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  43.3W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  43.3W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  42.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.1N  44.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N  46.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.3N  49.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.7N  52.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N  56.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 32.5N  57.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  43.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 



Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 11-Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 250834
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

For much of yesterday afternoon and evening, the NASA/NOAA Global
Hawk unmanned aircraft flew a mission through Gaston.  On the
aircraft's last pass through the storm, it released a dropsonde at
0243 UTC that measured a mean boundary layer wind of 80 kt and an
average wind of 77 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding near the
center of the cyclone.  These numbers both support an intensity of
65 kt, and consequently Gaston was upgraded to a hurricane.  The
sonde reported a minimum pressure of 995 mb with a 69-kt surface
wind, which equates to a central pressure of about 988 mb.

Despite Gaston becoming a hurricane, microwave data indicate that
the cyclone is tilted due to 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly shear.
The shear is expected to increase further during the next 12-24
hours when Gaston moves around the eastern side of an upper-level
low, and as a result, the hurricane is forecast to weaken back to a
tropical storm later today.  The shear is then forecast to subside
in about 48 hours, and with sea surface temperatures expected to
increase, Gaston is likely to reintensify during the latter part of
the forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is higher than the
previous forecast during the first 48 hours primarily to account for
the higher initial intensity.  After 48 hours, the official forecast
is unchanged and closely follows the SHIPS model and the ICON
intensity consensus.

Gaston continues to move northwestward, or 310 degrees at 15 kt,
along the southwestern edge of a mid-tropospheric high.  A fairly
quick northwestward motion should continue for the next 36 hours,
with a turn toward the west-northwest expected by 48 hours when
Gaston moves around the north side of the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low.  Gaston is then expected to recurve toward the
north-northeast by day 5 as it moves through a break in the ridge
and toward the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track models are in
agreement on this general scenario, although the ECMWF model is a
little bit slower and to the east of the other models, showing a
sharper turn by day 5.  The new NHC track forecast is therefore a
little east of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5 and lies
closest to the HWRF and the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 19.5N  43.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 21.1N  44.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 23.4N  46.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 25.3N  49.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 26.7N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 29.1N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 31.0N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 32.5N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg




Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11-Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 250834
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



Hurricane GASTON Graphics- Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Aug 2016 08:36:16 GMT

Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Aug 2016 09:05:39 GMT
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