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Pacific Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

Expires:No;;845095
ABPZ20 KNHC 240524
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar, located near the southwest coast of
Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific. Some gradual
development of this system is possible before the system moves
inland over Central America in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Pilar are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Pilar are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


		
	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240539
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles east of Great Abaco Island in the
Bahamas, and on Tropical Storm Lee, located over the central
Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)- ...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -50.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 24-Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240624
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Special Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 AM AST...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 230 AM AST (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently
stationary.  A drift toward the southeast is expected to begin
later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours.

Lee is a small hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 240624
TCMAT4

HURRICANE LEE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W AT 24/0630Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W AT 24/0630Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  50.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 240625
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in
Lee's central dense overcast.  This special advisory is thus being
issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds.  The intensity
forecast has been significantly increased based on the current
intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat
modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0630Z 31.9N  50.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0630Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Hurricane Lee Graphics- Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:30:00 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:30:01 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)- ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Maria was located near 27.0, -72.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 32-Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United
States southeast coast during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 32-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 240254
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.  TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  72.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 210SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  72.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  72.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N  72.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 32-Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive
with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of
very deep convection.  Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane
this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt.
However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both
objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due
to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is
kept at 100 kt in this advisory.  During the next 24 hours while
Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm
waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be
a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same
intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the
hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then
begin.

Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between
the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging
southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is
forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving
slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge
slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies
and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track
guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude
34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to
the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and
with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast
well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and
the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance.
These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina
coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected
consensus HCCA.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  These swells will likely cause
dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next
week.  For more information, please monitor information from your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 27.0N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 240255
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   4(20)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   4(23)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)   3(25)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  11(23)   4(27)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  11(28)   4(32)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  27(37)  14(51)   3(54)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   3(17)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   2(13)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  18(25)   9(34)   2(36)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  23(32)  10(42)   3(45)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  21(29)  10(39)   2(41)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   6(27)   2(29)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   7(24)   1(25)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   6(24)   2(26)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   2(18)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   1(15)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    


Hurricane Maria Graphics- Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:25 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:31:53 GMT
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