Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories
NHC Eastern Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABPZ20 KNHC 250540
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Satellite images indicate that shower activity has formed closer to
the circulation center of a low pressure area located about 1500
miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The low is
already producing winds near tropical storm force north of the
center, and any additional increase in organization would lead to
the formation of a tropical depression. The low is forecast to
move westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development during
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some development is possible while
the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph,
but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by early
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated
with a tropical wave, continues well south of the coast of southern
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become somewhat more
favorable for development of this system over the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Another area of low pressure could form well south of southeastern
Mexico by early next week. Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Summary for Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE (EP2/EP072014)- ...TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM LAND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 the center of GENEVIEVE was located near 12.2, -134.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250850 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 134.4W ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GENEVIEVE IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250849 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 134.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 134.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 134.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250850 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014 Deep convection began developing near the center of the low pressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC. The convection has persisted since that time, has become more organized, and appears to at least partially cover the low-level center. A 0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a little elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently well defined. The ASCAT data also showed an area of tropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center. Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Genevieve. Genevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical ridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much northward progress. The initial motion is 275/9 kt. The break in the ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24 hours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours. There is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the GFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track and the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude. Given Genevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't be surprising. The official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE. The upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. A band of strong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the north of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring the storm into a higher-shear environment. There is more certainty that vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is therefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250850 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Jul 2014 08:51:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Jul 2014 08:50:45 GMT