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Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories

	  
	  

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and cloudiness. Some gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while the system moves westward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system thereafter while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP5/EP052019)- ...DALILA HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 the center of Dalila was located near 19.1, -118.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 7-Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 232031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...DALILA HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 118.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 118.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday and this motion should
continue through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila
is forecast to become a tropical depression later tonight, and
degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 7-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 232030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019
2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 118.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 118.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7-Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

612 
WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory.
Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary
convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated
from the surface circulation.  An ASCAT overpass from around midday
sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected
35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been
slightly stronger than analyzed this morning.  Based on the ASCAT
and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt.  The cyclone is
currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States.  As Dalila weakens and
becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24
hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the
low-level steering flow.  The latest guidance envelope is not much
different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly
shear is not forecast to abate.  As a result, gradual weakening is
anticipated.  As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a
more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should
lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.  The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 232031
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34  2  26(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
20N 120W       50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics- Tropical Storm Dalila 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 20:33:20 GMT

Tropical Storm Dalila 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 21:22:08 GMT

	  


	

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