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NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar, located near the southwest coast of
Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific. Some gradual
development of this system is possible before the system moves
inland over Central America in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Pilar are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Pilar are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Summary for Tropical Storm Pilar (EP3/EP182017)- ...PILAR MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Pilar was located near 19.0, -105.4 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Pilar Public Advisory Number 2A-Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 240550
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
100 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...PILAR MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El
Roblito, including the Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. Pilar is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north to
north-northwest track is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, Pilar will move over or very near the coast of
Jalisco later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is likely today before Pilar approaches the
coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3
to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum of 15 inches over the
western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, western
Jalisco and Nayarit through Monday.   This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the
southern portion of the warning area this morning, and gradually
spread northward along the Mexican coast through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 2-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 240256
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL
ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 


Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 2-Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240256
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The structure of the cyclone near Mexico has improved over the past
6 hours.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now support
an estimated intensity of 35 kt, so the system is now classified as
Tropical Storm Pilar.

The initial motion based on recent satellite fixes is 350/4 kt.
Pilar is still expected to move generally toward the north-northwest
or north to the east of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico for
the next couple of days, and the primary source of uncertainty in
the forecast is possible interaction with land.  Due in part to
initial position uncertainty, the global models vary on whether
Pilar will clip the coast of Jalisco or remain just offshore, but
the model consensus now shows a landfall in about 24 hours.  The
NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the east toward the
model consensus, but it is certainly possible that the tropical
storm could remain offshore and enter the Gulf of California.
Regardless of whether the center makes landfall or not, heavy rain
is still likely along the coast of Mexico through early next week.

The possibility of land interaction makes the intensity forecast
particularly difficult.  Very warm SSTs and only moderate shear
should allow for some strengthening for at least the next 36 hours.
However, if Pilar makes landfall sooner than that, it will likely
quickly weaken.  Since my track forecast shows Pilar making
landfall in about 24 hours, my intensity forecast peaks at that
time, and shows steady weakening thereafter.  Beginning around 48
h, the GFS and ECMWF show that the shear will increase
substantially, which should cause Pilar to quickly become a remnant
low, even if it remains over water.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 18.7N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 240256
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   X(14)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X  15(15)  20(35)   5(40)   5(45)   1(46)   X(46)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)  10(25)   2(27)   X(27)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X  18(18)  20(38)   5(43)   4(47)   2(49)   X(49)
SAN BLAS       50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAN BLAS       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
P VALLARTA     34  3  46(49)   8(57)   1(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
P VALLARTA     50  X  11(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
P VALLARTA     64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 22   4(26)   1(27)   1(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 


Tropical Storm Pilar Graphics- Tropical Storm Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 05:51:24 GMT

Tropical Storm Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:39:10 GMT

	  


	

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