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NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hernan, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development of this system during the
next several days as it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of
southern Mexico by this weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)- ...HERNAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 the center of HERNAN was located near 20.5, -115.9 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 10-Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 281436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HERNAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 115.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. HERNAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 10-Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 281435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.9W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.9W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N 122.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.0N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 10-Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281437
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

Persistent 15-20 kt of westerly shear is certainly deteriorating the
cyclone's organization this morning. Conventional satellite imagery
shows a rather shapeless cloud pattern with warming cloud tops.  A
fortuitous 0934 UTC AMSU-A microwave pass indicated an eastward
vertical tilt with the low-level center located near the western
edge of the deep convection.  A compromise of satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB along with a 0933 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON
(which includes ADT, and AMSU intensity estimates) of 54 kt supports
an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory.  The large-scale
models and the statistical/dynamical intensity guidance all show a
moderate shear environment through the forecast period.
Furthermore, an increasingly stable air mass and decreasing sea
surface temperatures should ultimately weaken Hernan into a shallow
post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours.

Hernan continues to move northwestward, with an initial motion
estimate of 295/14 kt.  Global model guidance indicates that a
mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should steer Hernan
in this general motion through the 36 hour period.  Afterward, a
turn toward the west and a reduction in forward speed is forecast as
the remnant low moves within the lower tropospheric flow of the
subtropical ridge.  The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to
the left of the previous track beyond 36 hours, and lies between the
consensus model and the ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 20.5N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 22.9N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 23.8N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 24.0N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10-Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 281437
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014               
1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics- Tropical Storm HERNAN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 14:55:31 GMT

Tropical Storm HERNAN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 19:15:44 GMT

	  


	


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