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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042326
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 575 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become
better defined since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while the low moves generally northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)- ...KEVIN QUICKLY WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 the center of KEVIN was located near 22.0, -115.2 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm KEVIN Public Advisory Number 17-Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 042036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

...KEVIN QUICKLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 115.2W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kevin is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest with some decrease in expected during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued quick weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Kevin is forecast to become a remnant low by early
Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 17-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 042036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 17-Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042037
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Kevin is weakening. Its circulation center is on the southern edge
of large circular mass of deep convection that the cyclone has
maintained since overnight. A sequence of microwave images shows a
gradual dislocation of low- to mid-level centers, evidence that
south-southwesterly shear is taking its toll. Dvorak intensity
estimates are gradually decreasing, and a blend of these data is
used to lower the intensity to 45 kt.

Quick weakening is likely to continue.  A mid- to upper-level trough
impinging on Kevin from the west should produce even stronger shear
soon, and global models depict a decoupling of the cyclone in 12
hours or less.  Much drier mid- to upper-tropospheric air associated
with the trough should also reach Kevin's circulation and result in
a collapse of deep convection during the next day or so. The new
intensity forecast calls for a rapid decline, with remnant
low status by 36 hours and dissipation by 3 days.

Kevin has been moving due northward, and the initial motion estimate
is 360/07.  This general motion is expected until the cyclone fully
decouples on Saturday.  After that time, the shallower cyclone
should gain a greater westerly component of motion as it meets the
opposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the
eastern Pacific.  The new track forecast is adjusted to the right
again due to a delay in the north-northwestward motion forecast in
previous model runs to have begun by now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 22.0N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



Tropical Storm KEVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 042036
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               


Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics- Tropical Storm KEVIN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 20:39:32 GMT

Tropical Storm KEVIN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 21:10:13 GMT

	  


	


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