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Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories

	  
	  

NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171112
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odile, located over the northern Gulf of California, and on
Tropical Storm Polo, located a couple of hundred miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Summary for Tropical Storm POLO (EP2/EP172014)- ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 the center of POLO was located near 15.7, -102.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 171454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO
TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA
PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PLAYA SAN TELMO
TO ZIHUATANEJO
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF POLO WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, ANY DEVIATION
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 171454
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO
TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA
PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PLAYA SAN TELMO
TO ZIHUATANEJO
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 171455
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and
the center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection
as indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased
to 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still
some shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt
intensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours,
strong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established
over Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution
provided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows
closely the intensity consensus ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots,
steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern
Mexico.  Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the
ridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track.
The bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the
NHC forecast.  This forecast is not very different from the previous
one, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and
lies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

A small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently,
the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a
portion of the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila




Tropical Storm POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 171454
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014               
1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   7(21)   1(22)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   1(19)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   5( 6)  11(17)   8(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2  24(26)  18(44)   3(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34  3  23(26)  12(38)   3(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
MANZANILLO     50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
L CARDENAS     34 17   7(24)   2(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  6   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ACAPULCO       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  23(30)   7(37)   1(38)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)  11(19)   7(26)   2(28)   X(28)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



Tropical Storm POLO Graphics- Tropical Storm POLO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:00:19 GMT

Tropical Storm POLO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:08:30 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm ODILE (EP5/EP152014)- ...ODILE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 the center of ODILE was located near 30.6, -113.3 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm ODILE Public Advisory Number 30-Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 171456
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...ODILE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 113.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ALSO FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF BAHIA KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO PENASCO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ODILE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...BUT
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A WIND GUST TO
41 MPH...66 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT CABORCA IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR PUERTO PENASCO.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 18 INCHES ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATE OF SONORA.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.57 INCHES...62 MM...WAS OBSERVED AT
CABORCA MEXICO.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Advisory Number 30-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 171456
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ALSO FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF BAHIA KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO PENASCO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 113.3W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 113.3W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 30-Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

First-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA
Doppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level
center of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while
the mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the
northeast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity
estimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity
estimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level
blocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air
ahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are
expected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially
degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this
afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt.  A strong ridge
extending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching
mid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep
Odile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The
center of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across
the northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern
Mexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday.  The new forecast
track is just an update of the previous track and lies near the
consensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could
continue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind
over the Gulf of California.

The primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy
rainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will
continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern
United States over the next couple of days.  These heavy rains will
likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. Please see information from your local weather office for
more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm ODILE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 171457
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014               
1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P PENASCO      34 29   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Tropical Storm ODILE Graphics- Tropical Storm ODILE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:01:40 GMT

Tropical Storm ODILE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:07:36 GMT

	  


	


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