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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311144
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)- ...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 10.1, -100.8 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 311437
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 100.8W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. VANCE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 311437
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311438
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

There hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of
Vance during the past several hours.  While the central convection
has weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature
on the east side has increased.  Dvorak estimates are similar to 6
hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt.  Vance
continues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air.  Most
of the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the
weekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence
expected as well.  The latest model guidance generally shows a
higher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at
48-72 hours.  After that time, a significant increase in
southwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening
while the cyclone approaches Mexico.

The center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the
latest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been
creeping toward the south-southwest.  A ridge over the eastern
Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days,
steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today,
westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance
is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a
trough moving over Baja California.  While the models are in good
agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the
timing of the turn toward Mexico.  The guidance is generally faster
than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend.
Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly
because of the initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 10.1N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake




Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 311437
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)   3(27)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics- Tropical Storm VANCE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 14:40:37 GMT

Tropical Storm VANCE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 15:05:04 GMT

	  


	


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