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Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories

	  
	  

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280527
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Ulika, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a broad trough of low
pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible
through early next week while it moves west-northwestward or
westward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg


Summary for Tropical Storm ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)- ...ROSLYN WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 27 the center of ROSLYN was located near 19.5, -115.9 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 11-Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 280232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...ROSLYN WEAKENS A LITTLE...
...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 115.9W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 115.9 West.  Roslyn is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn to the
north is expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Roslyn is
expected to become a remnant low by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 280232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.7N 115.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.6N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 11-Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280232
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Roslyn is weakening this evening.  Strong southwesterly shear of
nearly 30 kt is affecting the tropical storm, and this has caused
the associated deep convection to be well removed to the
north-northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is
lowered a little to 35 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin.  The shear is expected to persist, or
even increase a little, during the next few days.  These hostile
winds combined with a stable atmosphere and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should cause additional weakening.  Roslyn will likely
weaken to a depression overnight or on Wednesday and become a
remnant low shortly thereafter when it moves over sea surface
temperatures below 26 deg C.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same
as the previous one, and generally follows the global model
guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 040/8 kt.  Roslyn should turn
northward soon as it rotates around a large cut off mid- to
upper-level low near the northern Baja California peninsula.  Once
the cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn northwestward in
the low-level flow before it dissipates in 2 to 3 days.  The
new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one,
and lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 19.5N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.7N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 21.8N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 22.8N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 23.6N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 280232
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016               
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 115W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               


Tropical Storm ROSLYN Graphics- Tropical Storm ROSLYN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 02:33:50 GMT

Tropical Storm ROSLYN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 03:05:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm ULIKA (EP4/EP192016)- ...ULIKA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 27 the center of ULIKA was located near 13.3, -139.1 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm ULIKA Public Advisory Number 7-Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 280233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...ULIKA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 139.1W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ulika was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 139.1 West.  Ulika is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn to the
north is expected on Wednesday, followed by a northwestward motion
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Ulika could be near hurricane
strength by Wednesday.  Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Advisory Number 7-Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 280233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 139.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 139.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 139.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 139.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion Number 7-Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Ulika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense
overcast.  Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner
core of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the
last several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in
the imagery.  An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed
maximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range.  Based on that data and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased
to 55 kt.  Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable
environmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system
could be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday.
Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or
westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend.  Ulika is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the
models suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then.
This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Ulika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a
mid- to upper-level low.  The upper low is expected to move slowly
westward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on
Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday.  After that time, Ulika
is expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn
west-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow.
The models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only
a small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast.
This prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm ULIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7-Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 280233
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016               
0300 UTC WED SEP 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ULIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 140W       34  2  15(17)  12(29)   2(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
15N 140W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
15N 140W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               


Tropical Storm ULIKA Graphics- Tropical Storm ULIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 02:34:55 GMT

Tropical Storm ULIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 03:06:11 GMT

	  


	

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