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NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that shower activity has formed closer to
the circulation center of a low pressure area located about 1500
miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The low is
already producing winds near tropical storm force north of the
center, and any additional increase in organization would lead to
the formation of a tropical depression. The low is forecast to
move westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development during
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some development is possible while
the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph,
but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated
with a tropical wave, continues well south of the coast of southern
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become somewhat more
favorable for development of this system over the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form well south of southeastern
Mexico by early next week. Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE (EP2/EP072014)- ...TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM LAND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 the center of GENEVIEVE was located near 12.2, -134.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR FROM
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 134.4W
ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST.
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A
WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.  GENEVIEVE IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 250849
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 134.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 134.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 134.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 134.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 



Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250850
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Deep convection began developing near the center of the low
pressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC.  The
convection has persisted since that time, has become more organized,
and appears to at least partially cover the low-level center.  A
0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a
little elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently
well defined.  The ASCAT data also showed an area of
tropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center.
Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.

Genevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical
ridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much
northward progress.  The initial motion is 275/9 kt.  The break in
the ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24
hours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours.
There is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the
GFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track
and the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude.  Given
Genevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't
be surprising.  The official forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE.

The upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for
further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so.  A band of
strong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the
north of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring
the storm into a higher-shear environment.  There is more certainty
that vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is
therefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely
becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.  The
official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus
ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 250850
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014               
0900 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Graphics- Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Jul 2014 08:51:32 GMT

Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Jul 2014 08:50:45 GMT

	  


	


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