Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories
NHC Eastern Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABPZ20 KNHC 281732
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hernan, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development of this system during the
next several days as it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of
southern Mexico by this weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)- ...HERNAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 the center of HERNAN was located near 20.5, -115.9 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 10-Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...HERNAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 115.9W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 10-Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.9W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.9W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N 122.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.0N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 10-Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 Persistent 15-20 kt of westerly shear is certainly deteriorating the cyclone's organization this morning. Conventional satellite imagery shows a rather shapeless cloud pattern with warming cloud tops. A fortuitous 0934 UTC AMSU-A microwave pass indicated an eastward vertical tilt with the low-level center located near the western edge of the deep convection. A compromise of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with a 0933 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON (which includes ADT, and AMSU intensity estimates) of 54 kt supports an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. The large-scale models and the statistical/dynamical intensity guidance all show a moderate shear environment through the forecast period. Furthermore, an increasingly stable air mass and decreasing sea surface temperatures should ultimately weaken Hernan into a shallow post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. Hernan continues to move northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 295/14 kt. Global model guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should steer Hernan in this general motion through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a turn toward the west and a reduction in forward speed is forecast as the remnant low moves within the lower tropospheric flow of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to the left of the previous track beyond 36 hours, and lies between the consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.5N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.9N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 23.8N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.0N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10-Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 14:55:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 19:15:44 GMT