Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm ALETTA Public Advisory Number 11-Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...ALETTA LIKELY TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 114.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ALETTA Forecast/Advisory Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ALETTA Forecast Discussion Number 11-Issued at 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170231 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012 THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. A STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT LOOKED. DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS REMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ALETTA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 0300 UTC THU MAY 17 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 9 22 25 36 35 NA TROP DEPRESSION 68 52 49 43 41 40 NA TROPICAL STORM 29 38 28 30 22 24 NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 1 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 1 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm ALETTA Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:32:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 03:03:42 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory 11 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:33 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory 11 Forecast Track (.kmz)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:35 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Advisory 11 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:31:35 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Best Track Information (.shp)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:30:39 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Best Track Information (.kmz)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:30:39 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Forecast Information (.shp)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:30:39 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 03:04:02 GMT
Tropical Storm ALETTA Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)-GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 03:04:06 GMT
Cyclone Information by XML (protoype)-Issued at Thu, 17 May 2012 02:30:47 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170534
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane public advisories & updates for the Atlantic from the NHC.Rely on official forecasts,servers may not be available 24 hours per day.Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio,National Weather Service office etc.Use of information is at your own risk & can not be guaranteed.
Hurricane.com- TD IDA Public Advisory 27- Hurricane.com has posted a new item, 'TD IDA Public Advisory 27'
000
WTNT31 KNHC 101433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
...IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN