Hurricane



Headlines

 
 
 
 
 

Eastern Pacific Hurricane & Tropical Storm Advisories

	  
	  

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located well to the west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form toward the end of
the week a few hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of this system while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Summary for Hurricane LESTER (EP3/EP132016)- ...LESTER STILL STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 29 the center of LESTER was located near 18.1, -129.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane LESTER Public Advisory Number 20-Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 291439
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LESTER ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

...LESTER STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 129.2W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lester was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 129.2 West. Lester is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Lester is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast
through this evening.  A gradual weakening trend is expected to
begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Hurricane LESTER Forecast Advisory Number 20-Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291439
TCMEP3

HURRICANE LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 131.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.2N 135.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.2N 138.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 19.3N 147.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 20-Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291440
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester's satellite presentation is quite impressive this morning.
The cyclone's eye continues to warm and and the inner core
cloud top temperatures have cooled considerably.  A blend of 1200
UTC satellite intensity estimates of 105 kt, and a recent ADT
objective intensity estimate yields an increased initial intensity
of 110 kt for this advisory.

Lester should remain in a low-shear environment for the next several
days, with only some gradual decrease in the oceanic water
temperature.  The majority of the intensity guidance indicate that
the hurricane will peak within the next 12 hours or so, then
gradual decrease.  It appears that the atmospheric environment and
the sea surface temperatures match similar criteria for an annular
hurricane manifestation.  If Lester acquires annular hurricane
characteristics, the cyclone could remain stronger longer than
reflected in the official forecast and what the intensity guidance
suggests.  The NHC forecast is adjusted a bit higher in the short
term, then shows gradual weakening and falls in line with the IVCN
multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/13.  A strong, deep-layer
ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a continued
westward course during the next 3 days.  Beyond that period, the
large-scale models indicate some interaction with Madeline to the
southwest of Lester which induces a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest through day 5.  The official forecast follows suit
and is based on a multi-model consensus and is quite similar to the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 18.1N 129.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 18.1N 131.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 18.2N 135.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 18.2N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 19.3N 147.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 21.0N 153.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Hurricane LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20-Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 291439
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016               
1500 UTC MON AUG 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 135W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
20N 135W       34  X  12(12)  30(42)   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
20N 135W       50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)  29(52)   X(52)   X(52)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  29(52)   1(53)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  23(46)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  25(40)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)
20N 151W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)
20N 154W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



Hurricane LESTER Graphics- Hurricane LESTER 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 14:41:41 GMT

Hurricane LESTER 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 15:10:23 GMT

	  


	

::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.