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Hurricane Supply Kit

Both the National Hurricane Center and the American Red Cross have developed specific guidelines for Hurricane supply kits. A hurricane survival kit is merely a specialized version of your disaster supply kit. It should include provisions to carry you through a week or two after a storm or other disaster. Our hurricane preparation page includes additional recommendations based on experiences of real people who have been through similar situations. Remember, the more water, food, and other items you have the better off you will be in the event of an emergency. You will be able to assist family and friends if needed.

Some companies include pre-assembled survival kits that include water purification tablets and more. They can be useful in addition to your own kit.

Our own version increases some of their recommendations and includes some additional items that are helpful in our experience.

Remember to print hard copy of any documents you need - instructions, tips or anything in case you have no power.

  • Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 7 to 10 days. Katrina and Wilma should have emphasized the importance of having sufficient water on hand. Don't forget some for your pets.
  • Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days
    — non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices
    — foods for infants or the elderly
    — snack foods (Peanut butter; mixed PBJ; breakfast bars; crackers; canned fruit; raisins; chips;
    — non-electric can opener
    — cooking tools / fuel
    — paper plates / plastic utensils / paper cups

    — trash bags and duct tape - useful for clean-up, or patching leaks in an emergency
  • An ax to use if you stay and need to escape from your house - or other uses
  • Blankets / Pillows, etc.
  • Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes
  • First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs
  • Special Items - for babies and the elderly
  • Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes
  • Bug spray, Cortisone for bug bites
  • Sunscreen & Lotion
  • Tarp to cover holes if needed.
  • Bleach
  • Water purification tablets
  • Waterless soap saves water for drinking
  • Flashlight / Batteries
  • Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio
  • Battery operated television, with extra batteries.
  • Cash - Banks and ATMs may not be open or available for extended periods. Make sure you have small bills because it will often be difficult to get change, I you only have a $100 and water is $10 for a case and you are limited to one case, you do not want to have the choice of paying $100 or having no water.
  • Keys to house, cars, boats etc
  • Toys, Books and Games
  • Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight resealable plastic bag
    — insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card, etc. Don't forget your re-entry documents (e.g. stickers or passes). Many barrier islands require some documentation in order to return. Keep important phone number here. You may know them, but a loved one may not.
  • Tools - keep a set with you during the storm. A pocket knife, nails, a hammer and rope are important elements. Towels and buckets are useful too if you develop a leak.
  • Vehicle fuel tanks filled
  • Pet care items
    — proper identification / immunization records / medications
    — ample supply of food and water
    — a carrier or cage
    — muzzle and leash
  • Hurricane Tips

  • If you can't get cell reception, move to high ground and you may be able to reach towers that are in working condition.

  • Have a non-cordless plug in phone (a no-frills, phone that only plugs into the phone outlet and does not need its own power supply). Often phone lines will work, but without power, corldess phones will not work.
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm

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    Advisory


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 240539
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Maria, located a few hundred miles east of Great Abaco Island in the
    Bahamas, and on Tropical Storm Lee, located over the central
    Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven



    Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)- ...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -50.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

    Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 24-Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 240624
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Lee Special Advisory Number  24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
    200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    ...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 230 AM AST...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W
    ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 230 AM AST (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
    near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently
    stationary.  A drift toward the southeast is expected to begin
    later today.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
    with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
    next 36 to 48 hours.
    
    Lee is a small hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
    to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
    extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    


    Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 240624
    TCMAT4
    
    HURRICANE LEE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
    0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W AT 24/0630Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
    64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W AT 24/0630Z
    AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  50.1W
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W
    MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  50.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    
    
    


    Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 240625
    TCDAT4
    
    Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number  24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
    200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017
    
    Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in
    Lee's central dense overcast.  This special advisory is thus being
    issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds.  The intensity
    forecast has been significantly increased based on the current
    intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat
    modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the
    previous advisory.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/0630Z 31.9N  50.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
     12H  24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
     24H  25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
     36H  25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
     48H  26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
     72H  27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
     96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
    120H  29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    


    Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                        
    HURRICANE LEE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24           
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
    0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0630Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
    ...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
     
    ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
    NNNN                                                                
    


    Hurricane Lee Graphics- Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:30:00 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:30:01 GMT

    Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)- ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Maria was located near 27.0, -72.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

    Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 32-Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 240254
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  32
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
    1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017
    
    ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
    ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W
    ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
    ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
    the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
    needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was
    located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is
    moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
    motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
    track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United
    States southeast coast during the next 2 days.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
    during the next day or so.
    
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
    (390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a
    sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h).
    
    The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
    Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
    the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
    increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  Swells also
    continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
    coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
    office for more information.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    


    Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 32-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 240254
    TCMAT5
     
    HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
    0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    NONE.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.  TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE
    NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  72.5W AT 24/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
    50 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
    34 KT.......210NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 210SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  72.5W AT 24/0300Z
    AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  72.4W
     
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
    50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
    50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
    50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N  72.5W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA
     
     
    


    Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 32-Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 240256
    TCDAT5
    
    Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  32
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
    1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017
    
    Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive
    with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of
    very deep convection.  Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane
    this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt.
    However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both
    objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due
    to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is
    kept at 100 kt in this advisory.  During the next 24 hours while
    Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm
    waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be
    a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same
    intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the
    hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then
    begin.
    
    Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
    toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between
    the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging
    southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is
    forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving
    slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge
    slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies
    and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track
    guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude
    34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to
    the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and
    with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast
    well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and
    the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance.
    These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina
    coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
    follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected
    consensus HCCA.
    
    
    KEY MESSAGES:
    
    1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
    U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
    occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
    coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
    progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
    needed for part of this area on Sunday.
    
    2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
    southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
    Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  These swells will likely cause
    dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next
    week.  For more information, please monitor information from your
    local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/0300Z 27.0N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
     12H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
     24H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
     36H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
     48H  26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
     72H  27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
     96H  28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
    120H  29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    


    Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32-Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
    
    000
    FONT15 KNHC 240255
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                 
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
    0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
    27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
     
    PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
     
    ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
     
    NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
     
    NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
     
    NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
     
    PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
     
    ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
     
    BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
     
    DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
     
    ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
     
    WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
     
    CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
     
    OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)
     
    PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
     
    WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   4(20)
     
    CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
     
    RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
     
    DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
     
    NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   4(23)
    NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)   3(25)
    NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  11(23)   4(27)
    OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
    OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  11(28)   4(32)
    ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
    ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
     
    RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
     
    ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
     
    CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  27(37)  14(51)   3(54)
    CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   3(17)
    CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
     
    FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   2(13)
     
    CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  18(25)   9(34)   2(36)
    CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
    CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
     
    NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  23(32)  10(42)   3(45)
    NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
    NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
     
    MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  21(29)  10(39)   2(41)
    MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
    MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   6(27)   2(29)
    SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
    SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   7(24)   1(25)
    WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   6(24)   2(26)
    BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
     
    FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
     
    COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
     
    LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   2(18)
     
    MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   1(15)
     
    GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)
     
    CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
     
    BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
     
    BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)
     
    SAN SALVADOR   34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
    


    Hurricane Maria Graphics- Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:25 GMT

    Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:31:53 GMT
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