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    Advisory


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    715
    ABNT20 KNHC 152344
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories Subtropical
    Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
    Newfoundland.

    A tropical wave located about 850 miles east-southeast of the
    Windward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
    thunderstorms. Slow development of this disturbance is possible over
    the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to
    20 mph. By early next week, however, upper-level winds are expected
    to become less conducive for any significant development to occur
    when the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
    WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
    Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto are issued under
    WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart



    Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)- ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.7, -45.1 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 4-Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
    ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
    
    BULLETIN
    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
    1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
    
    ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
    ATLANTIC...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...39.7N 45.1W
    ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
    was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 45.1 West. The storm
    is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
    toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast
    tonight and early Thursday, with that motion continuing through
    Saturday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
    hours. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
    Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near
    Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.
    
    Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
    center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    NNNN
    


    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 4-Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018
    
    232 
    WTNT25 KNHC 160233
    TCMAT5
    
    SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
    0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  45.1W AT 16/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   9 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 160SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N  45.1W AT 16/0300Z
    AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  45.4W
    
    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N  43.4W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.7N  40.0W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.3N  34.9W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 90NE 140SE  80SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.0N  27.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.0N  12.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...  0NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N  45.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    
    
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 4-Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
    
    844 
    WTNT45 KNHC 160234
    TCDAT5
    
    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
    1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018
    
    Although inner-core convection has increased since the previous
    advisory, outer banding features have become more fragmented and
    the overall cloud pattern has become elongated north-to-south.
    There are also no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow,
    an indication that Ernesto is still a subtropical cyclone. The
    initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 2328Z
    ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 32 kt in the southeastern
    quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds of 70-80 nmi. This
    intensity is consistent with a ST2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB.
    
    The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. Ernesto
    has rounded the subtropical ridge axis to its south, and the
    cyclone should gradually get caught up in the mid-latitude
    westerlies and turn northeastward during the next 12 hours or so.
    A northeastward motion along with a steadily increasing forward
    speed is expected through Friday. The track guidance is tightly
    packed around the previous advisory track, so the new NHC forecast
    track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory, and
    lies near the track consensus models HCCA and TVCN.  On the forecast
    track, Ernesto is expected to approach Ireland as an extratropical
    gale area on Saturday.
    
    Ernesto is expected to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST)
    of 25 deg C or warmer for the next 18-24 hours, along with low
    vertical shear conditions of less than 10 kt. These conditions
    should allow for some slight strengthening during that short time
    window. By 36 hours, Ernesto is forecast to be moving over SSTs of
    20 deg C and colder and into a more stable airmass, resulting in a
    degeneration of the inner-core convection. As a result, Ernesto is
    expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, and become
    an extratropical gale area after merging with a frontal zone near
    Ireland and the United Kingdom in about 3 days.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  16/0300Z 39.7N  45.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  16/1200Z 41.3N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  17/0000Z 43.7N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  17/1200Z 46.3N  34.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     48H  18/0000Z 49.0N  27.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  19/0000Z 54.0N  12.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4-Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018
    
    204 
    FONT15 KNHC 160233
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4       
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
    0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
    LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
    
    


    Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics- Subtropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:29 GMT

    Subtropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 03:22:06 GMT
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