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    Advisory


    NHC Atlantic

    Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 181751
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Humberto, located a little more than a hundred miles west of
    Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles
    east of the Leeward Islands.

    A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
    Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
    Some development of this system is possible while the system
    approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves
    across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
    the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
    tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
    conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
    possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
    the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
    northwestward through the weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake


    Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 5-The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

    Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)- ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 32.4, -67.2 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

    Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 24A-Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 181751
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    200 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
    ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...32.4N 67.2W
    ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Bermuda
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
    located by satellite and the Bermuda weather radar near latitude
    32.4 North, longitude 67.2 West.  Humberto is now moving toward the
    east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  This general motion with an
    additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
    Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
    through Friday.  On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
    expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
    tonight.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
    during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
    hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda.
    A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.
    
    Humberto is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
    outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
    tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 195 miles (315
    km) based on satellite-derived surface wind data. A wind gust to
    51 mph (82 km/h) recently occurred at the Bermuda airport.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by this
    evening and continue into early Thursday morning.
    Tropical-storm-force winds will occur on Bermuda through Thursday
    morning. Outside preparations are becoming difficult or dangerous
    and should be completed soon.
    
    RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
    through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
    maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.
    
    SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
    coast of Bermuda today.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
    along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
    Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.  Wave heights exceeding
    30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.
    
    Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
    southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
    North Carolina during the next couple of days.
    
    These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
    and the Bermuda Weather Service.
    
    STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
    levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
    southern coast of Bermuda.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    


    Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 181438
    TCMAT4
     
    HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
    1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    NONE.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BERMUDA
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  68.1W AT 18/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  14 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
    64 KT....... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
    12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  68.1W AT 18/1500Z
    AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  68.8W
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
    50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
    34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W
    MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
    50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
    34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
    50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
    34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N  68.1W
     
    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/1800Z
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
     
     
    


    Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 181444
    TCDAT4
    
    Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a
    reconnoiter of Humberto this morning found that the intensity of the
    major hurricane had increased slightly, but that the inner-core 64-
    and 50-kt wind fields had expanded significantly, now extending
    outward up to at least 90 n mi and 110 n mi, respectively, in the
    southeastern quadrant. During their pass through the southeastern
    quadrant, the aircraft measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt,
    but peak SFMR winds of only 97 kt. Given that convection is minimal
    in that quadrant, the normal downward mixing is likely not
    occurring, the intensity has only been increased to 105 kt. The
    aircraft also measured a central pressure of 952 mb with a
    dropsonde, which is close to the pressure of 954.2 mb with 30-kt
    winds that NOAA buoy 41048 measured in the eye around 0930 UTC.
    
    The initial motion estimate remains 065/14 kt. Humberto is beginning
    to feel the effects of a deep-layer trough approaching from the
    west, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate toward the
    east-northeast through tonight, passing just north and northwest
    of Bermuda, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
    Thursday afternoon. By 48 hours or so, Humberto is forecast to turn
    back toward the east-northeast and maintain that motion through day
    5 as a ridge to the east of the cyclone weakens and flattens out.
    The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one for
    the first 36 hours, and then is a little faster and to the left of
    the previous advisory thereafter, closer to the tightly packed
    consensus track model guidance.
    
    Humberto may have peaked in intensity based on the cloud pattern
    in satellite imagery beginning to take on the appearance of an
    extratropical cyclone. Thus, some fluctuations in strength could
    occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, very strong
    southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold upwelling beneath the
    hurricane should disrupt the inner-core convection and organization,
    resulting in steady weakening. By 72 hours, the global models
    continue to show Humberto merging with a frontal system, and the
    NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition by that
    time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected-
    consensus models HCCA and FSSE through the next 12-24 hours, and
    then is above that guidance through the remainder of the forecast
    period, closer to an average of the global models.
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected on Bermuda from
    late this afternoon through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force
    winds expected overnight tonight. Preparations to protect life and
    property should be rushed to completion.
    
    2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
    flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.
    
    3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
    southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
    North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
    threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  18/1500Z 32.2N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
     12H  19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
     24H  19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
     36H  20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
     48H  20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
     72H  21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    


    Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
    
    000
    FONT14 KNHC 181438
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24              
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
    1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
    32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
     
    BERMUDA        34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
    BERMUDA        50 72   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
    BERMUDA        64 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
    


    Hurricane Humberto Graphics- Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 17:52:28 GMT

    Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:24:55 GMT

    Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)- ...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 14.6, -49.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

    Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 181440
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
    1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    ...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W
    ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
    progress of this system.  Watches could be issued this afternoon or
    evening.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
    located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
    northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
    the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near
    the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
    Saturday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
    higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
    Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and
    Saturday.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    
    


    Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 181440
    TCMAT5
     
    TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
    1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR
    EVENING.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.2W AT 18/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.2W AT 18/1500Z
    AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  48.5W
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  49.2W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
     
     
    


    Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 181454
    TCDAT5
    
    Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
    1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
    
    Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
    organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
    While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
    satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
    The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
    almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
    ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.
    
    Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
    two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
    While this type of environment could support even more
    strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
    around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
    rates for now.  This forecast leans heavier on the regional
    hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
    cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
    Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
    the shear could become somewhat strong by next week.  While little
    change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
    happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
    environmental factors become more clear.
    
    The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
    kt.  The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
    faster forward speed for the next couple of days.  Afterward, a
    northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
    the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
    NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
    and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
    model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.
    
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves
    near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to
    determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should
    ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the
    progress of this system.  Watches could be issued for a portion of
    this area this afternoon or evening.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
     24H  19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
     48H  20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
     72H  21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
     96H  22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
    120H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    
    


    Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
    
    041 
    FONT15 KNHC 181440
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
    1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
    LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
     
    MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
     
    GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)
    GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
    GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
     
    PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
     
    SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
     
    PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
     
    AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
     
    SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
     
    VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   3(18)   X(18)
    VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)
    SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
    SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
     
    SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)
    SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   1(34)   X(34)
    SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
    SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   1(20)   X(20)
    SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   1(18)   X(18)
    ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
    ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
     
    ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)
    ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)   X(29)   X(29)
    BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
    BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
     
    ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)   X(16)
    ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
     
    AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
    
    


    Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics- Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:58:03 GMT

    Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:32:06 GMT
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