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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE: Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 kph). Storm surge generally 4-5 feet above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.

CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE: Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 kph). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 kph). Storm surge generally 9-12 feet above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 feet above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE: Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 kph). Storm surge generally 13-18 feet above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE: Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 kph). Storm surge generally greater than 18 feet above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 feet above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone of record.

Quoted from the National Hurricane Center , Tropical Prediction Center.

All hurricanes are dangerous, but some are more so than others. The way storm surge, wind, and other factors combine determines the hurricane's destructive power. To make comparisons easier, and to make the predicted hazards of approaching hurricanes clearer, NOAA's hurricane forecasters use a disaster-potential scale, which assigns storms to five categories. Category 1 is a minimum hurricane and category 5 is the worst case. The criteria for each category are shown below.


CATE-   CENTRAL PRESSURE        WINDS      SURGE     EXAMPLE
GORY   (milli-   (inches)       (mph)      (ft)   DAMAGE    STORM
        bars)

1      980 or    less than      74-95      4-5    minimal   Agnes 1972, Ismael 1995, 
       greater   or = 28.94                                 Danny 1997, Gaston 2004, 
                                                            Stan 2005

2      965-979   28.50-28.91    96-110     6-8    moderate  Kate 1965, Fifi 1974, 
                                                            Diana 1990, Erin 1995,
                                                            Juan 2003, Wilma 2005

3      945-964   27.91-28.47    111-130    9-12   extensive Elena 1985, Alicia 1983
                                                            Roxanne 1995, Fran 1996,
                                                            Isidore 2002, Jeanne 2004

4      920-944   27.17-27.88    131-155    13-18  extreme   "Galveston" 1990, 
                                                            Hazel 1954, Iniki 1992, 
                                                            Hugo 1989, Iris 2001,
                                                            Charley 2004

5      less        less          more      more   cata-     "LABOR DAY
       than        than          than      than   strophic  STORM" 1935, Luis 1995,
       920         27.17         155       18               Gilbert 1988, Andrew 1992
                                                          
	   


Hurricane & Tropical Storm

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Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located a little more than a hundred miles west of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible while the system
approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves
across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
northwestward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 5-The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)- ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 32.4, -67.2 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 24A-Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by satellite and the Bermuda weather radar near latitude
32.4 North, longitude 67.2 West.  Humberto is now moving toward the
east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  This general motion with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
through Friday.  On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda.
A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 195 miles (315
km) based on satellite-derived surface wind data. A wind gust to
51 mph (82 km/h) recently occurred at the Bermuda airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds will occur on Bermuda through Thursday
morning. Outside preparations are becoming difficult or dangerous
and should be completed soon.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today.  Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.  Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
WTNT24 KNHC 181438
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  68.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  68.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  68.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N  68.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 


Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTNT44 KNHC 181444
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a
reconnoiter of Humberto this morning found that the intensity of the
major hurricane had increased slightly, but that the inner-core 64-
and 50-kt wind fields had expanded significantly, now extending
outward up to at least 90 n mi and 110 n mi, respectively, in the
southeastern quadrant. During their pass through the southeastern
quadrant, the aircraft measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt,
but peak SFMR winds of only 97 kt. Given that convection is minimal
in that quadrant, the normal downward mixing is likely not
occurring, the intensity has only been increased to 105 kt. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 952 mb with a
dropsonde, which is close to the pressure of 954.2 mb with 30-kt
winds that NOAA buoy 41048 measured in the eye around 0930 UTC.

The initial motion estimate remains 065/14 kt. Humberto is beginning
to feel the effects of a deep-layer trough approaching from the
west, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate toward the
east-northeast through tonight, passing just north and northwest
of Bermuda, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
Thursday afternoon. By 48 hours or so, Humberto is forecast to turn
back toward the east-northeast and maintain that motion through day
5 as a ridge to the east of the cyclone weakens and flattens out.
The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one for
the first 36 hours, and then is a little faster and to the left of
the previous advisory thereafter, closer to the tightly packed
consensus track model guidance.

Humberto may have peaked in intensity based on the cloud pattern
in satellite imagery beginning to take on the appearance of an
extratropical cyclone. Thus, some fluctuations in strength could
occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, very strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane should disrupt the inner-core convection and organization,
resulting in steady weakening. By 72 hours, the global models
continue to show Humberto merging with a frontal system, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition by that
time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected-
consensus models HCCA and FSSE through the next 12-24 hours, and
then is above that guidance through the remainder of the forecast
period, closer to an average of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected on Bermuda from
late this afternoon through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force
winds expected overnight tonight. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 32.2N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 33.5N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 36.1N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 38.6N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 40.7N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 43.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 47.2N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
FONT14 KNHC 181438
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BERMUDA        34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
BERMUDA        50 72   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
BERMUDA        64 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  


Hurricane Humberto Graphics- Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 17:52:28 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:24:55 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)- ...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 14.6, -49.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches could be issued this afternoon or
evening.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near
the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 181440
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  48.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  49.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 


Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 181454
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now.  This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week.  While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt.  The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days.  Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves
near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to
determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the
progress of this system.  Watches could be issued for a portion of
this area this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.6N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.3N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 18.4N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 20.5N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 23.3N  69.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

041 
FONT15 KNHC 181440
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   3(18)   X(18)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   X(14)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   1(34)   X(34)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   1(20)   X(20)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   1(18)   X(18)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics- Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:58:03 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:32:06 GMT
::
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