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Advisory


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181756
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located about a hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends several
hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next
week while moving westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)- ...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -126.7 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 25-Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 181431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 126.7W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 126.7 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A westward
track is likely later today, followed by a west-northwest motion on
Thursday and Friday, and a westward motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Kiko could become a hurricane again on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 25-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 181431
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 126.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 


Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 25-Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 181432
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko appears to be stronger this morning with very deep convection
near the center, although the cloud pattern is somewhat distorted.
The initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 50 kt on this
advisory, since the subjective satellite estimates have been running
a little hot recently.

The storm continues to move west-southwest, or 245/05 kt.  A track
resembling on roller coaster (which seems appropriate for the ups
and downs trying to forecast Kiko this past week) is anticipated
during the next several days due to fluctuations in the strength of
a mid-level ridge to the north. The guidance is actually in pretty
good agreement on this unusual track, so little change was made to
the previous NHC forecast.

Kiko is expected to remain in a low-shear and marginally warm-water
environment for the next few days.  After that time, some dry air
entrainment and a possible increase in shear could level off the
intensity.  The latest forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, adjusted for the higher initial wind speed, but this
is a fairly low confidence forecast at long range due to some large
changes in the guidance at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 181432
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 130W       34  X   4( 4)  27(31)  16(47)   8(55)   2(57)   1(58)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  11(16)   4(20)   X(20)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  25(29)  29(58)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics- Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:33:21 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:45:10 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)- ...MARIO STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 14.5, -111.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 5-Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 181432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...MARIO STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 111.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 111.0 West. Mario is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This motion is
expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward
speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly
stationary from early Friday through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected and Mario
is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 181432
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 111.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 


Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 181433
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has
become better defined overnight.  Both GPM and SSMI overpasses
reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned
with the low-level center.  This places the center well within the
convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery.  Based on
this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is
raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate
and UW/CIMSS ADT.  Mario has managed to fight off moderate
northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm
SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is
forecast.  The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory
in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24
hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm
could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in
the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow
weakening.

Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it
northwestward during the next day or so.  After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical
models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast
and north of Mario.  For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less
interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official
forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The
medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more
uncertain than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

991 
FOPZ14 KNHC 181432
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
15N 110W       34 28   3(31)   3(34)   2(36)   2(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 
20N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   8(17)   4(21)   1(22)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)  10(16)  10(26)  14(40)   6(46)   X(46)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2   3( 5)  18(23)  17(40)  14(54)   9(63)   1(64)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   5(18)   2(20)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
15N 115W       34  2   6( 8)   8(16)   6(22)   5(27)   2(29)   X(29)
 
20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)  14(26)  19(45)   8(53)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



Tropical Storm Mario Graphics- Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:34:11 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:51:53 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)- ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 17.6, -104.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 5A-Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181745
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress
of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it
nears the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread
northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will
first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then
are expected to spread northward along the coast through
Thursday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181437
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE  80SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 


Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 5-Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181452
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the
development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands
wrapping around the circulation.  The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite
estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.  Lorena
is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24
hours.  After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much
interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico.  The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the
immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs.
After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast
to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California
peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more
uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction.

Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track.  Recent
microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt.
Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern
portion of mid-level ridge.  The overall track envelope has nudged
eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  In fact, the
ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a
distinct possibility.  The early portion of the NHC track has been
nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model
track and the various consensus aids.  After 24 hours, most of the
guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to
the north of the cyclone.  During this portion of the track
forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight.
A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations
to protect life in property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5-Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 181437
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  39(47)   7(54)   1(55)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   1(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  22(25)   5(30)   X(30)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)   1(19)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   9(10)  32(42)  22(64)   6(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X  24(24)  17(41)   3(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
P VALLARTA     50  X   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
P VALLARTA     64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 21  59(80)   2(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  3  30(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34 68  22(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
MANZANILLO     50 18  26(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
MANZANILLO     64  4   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)  17(28)   3(31)   X(31)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics- Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 17:45:04 GMT

Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:58:29 GMT
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