Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;191354 ABNT20 KNHC 302341 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 PM EST WED NOV 30 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2017. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. $$ Forecaster Beven Expires:No;;256097 AXNT20 KNHC 291029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 32N58W supporting a 1000 mb surface low centered near 31N59W. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring generally N of 29N between 61W-63W with fresh to strong winds occurring elsewhere primarily within 300 nm of the NW semicircle of the low and within 420 nm of the E quadrant of the low as noted by earlier scatterometer data. The low is forecast to move NE through Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind area rotating around the base of the low. By Thursday night...the low will move N of the discussion area and be in the process of merging with a storm force low centered near 42N53W at 965 mb. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 02N24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 07N between 02W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf this morning with water vapor imagery indicating a vigorous middle to upper level low centered over eastern New Mexico. At the surface...a ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1018 mb high centered across the east-central Gulf near 28N84W to the Mexico coast near 24N98W with a complex area of low pressure nearly collocated with the upper level feature across eastern New Mexico and northern Texas. Mostly fresh to strong SE winds are noted W of 90W and with moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds noted E of 90W. Given the active convection across the interior portions of the southern Plains...skies remain relatively clear this morning across the Gulf waters. As the low ejects into the southern Plains fully by Wednesday afternoon...the associated cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this morning with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. One exception is an area of enhanced cloudiness and isolated showers occurring across the south-central waters from 11N-16N between 65W-71W. With the Special Features low pressure area located N-NE of Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in mostly gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind pattern is expected to persist through Thursday with the exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of the week. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow aloft...however a surface trough extends SW from the Special Features low pressure area to the NE coast of the island near 20N69W. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough is generating isolated showers across the NE coast and adjacent coastal waters from 19N-20N between 67W-70W. As the low pressure area moves NE during the next 24 hours...conditions will trend drier Wednesday night into Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features low pressure area centered on a 1000 mb low near 31N59W. A warm front extends eastward from the low to 32N57W to 29N44W and provides much of the lift generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 27N-36N between 43W-61W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 29N74W. Farther east across the central and eastern Atlc...surface ridging with axis extending from near the Madeira Islands near 32N16W to a 1022 mb high near 28N25W to a 1021 mb high centered near 30N41W is providing mostly fair conditions E of 50W outside of the area influenced by the aforementioned warm front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.-The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.