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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;892180
ABNT20 KNHC 031130
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located in the western Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Earl are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Expires:No;;892764
AXNT20 KNHC 031158 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

Corrected for Tropical Storm Earl intensity

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.3N 84.4W at 03/1200 UTC
or about 105 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras and about 230 nm ESE of
Belize City Belize moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 70 kt. Numerous strong convection is along the coast of
Honduras from 15N-18N between 82W-85W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere over the NW
Caribbean and Central America from 12N-21N between 79W-92W.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it makes landfall.
Earl is expected to also produce total rain accumulations of 8 to
12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, through Thursday night. A storm surge
will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal
tide levels along the immediate coast of the Honduras Bay Islands,
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 20N34W
to 06N34W moving west 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models.
Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture with
Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is west of the wave axis from 05N-10N between 34W-
42W. 

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N47W to 07N49W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 14N-18N between 48W-53W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 43W-52W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 14N25W to 07N37W to 11N44W. The ITCZ
begins west of a tropical wave near 11N51W and continues to the
coast of South America near 09N60W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are
from 07N-11N between 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. Further south, the leading edge
of precipitation from T.S. Earl has reached the Yucatan Channel
and is spreading west. 10-15 kt mostly easterly winds are noted
over the Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is over S Florida
and the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 82W. Elsewhere,
isolated moderate convection is just entering the eastern Bay of
Campeche also due to the leading edge of precipitation from T.S.
Earl. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over
the NW Gulf near 29N94W. A small upper level low is centered
over the N Bahamas near 27N79W enhancing convection over S
Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
convection over the SE Gulf, and the Yucatan Peninsula due to
T.S. Earl.  

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The prime focus tonight is T.S. Earl moving through the NW
Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over
the E Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is over the
SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica, from 08N-11N between 77W-
86W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered S of
the Cayman Islands near 17N82W. Further east, an upper level low
is centered over the the E Caribbean near 15N62W with strong
subsidence producing fair weather E of 70W.  
  
...HISPANIOLA... 

Currently, mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect
scattered showers Wed afternoon and evening during maximum
heating hours. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Scattered moderate convection is over the N Bahamas from 24N-27N
between 77W-80W mostly due the small upper level low centered
near 27N79W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 34N28W with a ridge axis extending west to N
Florida. Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See
above. Also of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N54W enhancing
showers. Expect the tropical waves to move west with convection
for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 272340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

An area of low pressure centered near the north coast of Central
Cuba is a little better defined this afternoon, and is producing a
large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
interacts with the terrain of Cuba through Sunday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when the
low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Reports
from the Cuban Meteorological Service indicate that 3 to 5 inches of
rain have fallen in portions of the island this afternoon.
These rains are likely to continue primarily over portions of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are probably occurring over portions of the
Bahamas, and this activity will spread into parts of southern
Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. Interests elsewhere in
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

The broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southwest of
Bermuda has become elongated and the associated shower activity
remains poorly organized. Development of this system, if any, is
likely to be slow to occur due to the proximity of dry air during
the next couple of days. This low is forecast to move westward and
then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of North
Carolina where conditions are not favorable for development. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)- ...GASTON SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 27 the center of GASTON was located near 29.2, -54.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 21-Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272039
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

...GASTON SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 54.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 54.0 West. Gaston is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Gaston is expected to become a hurricane later tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 21-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 272038
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  54.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE  90SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  54.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  53.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N  54.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.7N  55.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N  55.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.4N  54.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N  53.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N  50.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N  44.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N  54.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 21-Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 272040
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016

The inner-core convection of Gaston has continued to increase with
the CDO having expanded and become more symmetrical. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates remain T4.0/65 kt and T3.5/55 kt from
TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is
T3.9/63 kt. An average of these estimates supports maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt, which could be conservative.

Gaston's initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. Gaston
is expected to continue moving northwestward and gradually
decelerate during the next two days as the cyclone moves into a
break in the Bermuda-Azores ridge. A shortwave trough and associated
frontal system is forecast to approach Gaston by 72 hours and slowly
lift out the tropical cyclone to the north and northeast. On days 4
and 5, Gaston is expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude
westerly flow ahead of the aforementioned frontal system and
accelerate east-northeastward. The new NHC track model guidance is
in much better agreement now that the ECMWF model has made a
significant eastward shift in its track forecast and is much closer
to the previous advisory track. The new official forecast track was
only shifted eastward slightly to come more in line with the
consensus models TVCN and GFEX. However, the track shift also
resulted in a significant decrease in the forward speed on days 3,
4, and 5.

The global and regional models continue to indicate that Gaston
will remain in a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern for at
least the next 72 hours. In fact, the Navy-COAMPS, GFS, and ECMWF
models forecast Gaston to become a major hurricane by 72-120 h, with
the ECMWF forecasting a central pressure of 945 mb on day 5. In
contrast, the HWRF and the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS/LGEM
only bring Gaston up to 85-90 kt. Due to the possibility of
occasional dry air intrusions, with mid-level humidity values in the
40-percent range, weakening the inner-core convection, the official
intensity forecast remains unchanged and on the conservative side
through 72 hours, which is slightly above the consensus model IVCN.
On days 4 and 5, strong westerly shear of about 30 kt should induce
weakening, which also argues against this system becoming a major
hurricane at that time like the ECMWF model is predicting, and the
forecast is a little lower than the consensus on those days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 29.2N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 30.0N  54.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 30.7N  55.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 31.0N  55.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 31.4N  54.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 32.5N  53.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 34.0N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 37.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21-Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 272039
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics- Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:44:06 GMT

Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 21:06:39 GMT
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