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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

ABNT20 KNHC 302336

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster Beven

AXNT20 KNHC 212339

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone coast 
near 07N12W to 01.5N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01.5N21W to the 
coast of Brazil near 06S35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 15W and 22W.


Surface high pressure continues to build across the Gulf, with
high pressure of 1024 mb centered over the Texas coastline. A 
surface trough is along the Mexican coastline in the southwest 
Gulf of Mexico from 22N97W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are noted 
on satellite adjacent to this trough. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail throughout the basin, with seas
generally in the 3-5 ft range. 

High pressure will dominate the Gulf region over the next several
days producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind 
flow. One exception will be a freshening of winds off the west 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and overnight
hours in response to a thermal trough which develops over the
Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoon/early evening hours, 
and propagates westward into the SW Gulf during the overnight


A cold front extends from east Cuba near 21N78W southwestward 
to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Scattered moderate showers
are noted on satellite along the front. Scattered moderate 
showers are also noted moving across the Lesser Antilles into the 
far eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
noted west of the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted just off 
the coast of Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades prevailing 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range off the coast of 
Colombia, and 2-4 ft across the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

The cold front will propagate SE, reaching from the Windward 
Passage to near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica Fri before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds are expected to prevail within
90 nm off the coast of Colombia through Friday night through the
next several days, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing
elsewhere across the remainder of the basin.


The cold front in the extends southwest from a 1008 mb low near 
31N65W to another 1013 mb low off the north- central coast of 
Cuba near 23N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong showers 
are noted along the front. A reinforcing cold front extends from 
31N74W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong showers are noted along to front S of 31N to the 
NW Bahamas. High pressure prevails across the rest of the basin 
discussion area. Fresh to near gale force winds prevail N of 28N
within 180 nm E of the front. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
over the deep tropics, while gentle to moderate winds prevail 
over much of the remainder of the discussion area. NW swell
propagating across the SW N Atlc is helping for seas in the 8-11
ft range over the open waters west of the easternmost cold front.
West of the Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Seas in the 4-6
ft range prevails across the remainder of the discussion area.

The eastern cold front will stall tonight, while the reinforcing
front continues to shift eastward. The fronts will merge on
Friday, with the merged front extending from near 31N62W to the 
Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba by Friday night. Swell 
generated by these fronts will continue to dominate the waters 
east of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend.

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