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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;784912
ABNT20 KNHC 162321
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located several hundred miles east of Bermuda.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic.  Conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system by late this week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts


Expires:No;;785586
AXNT20 KNHC 162350
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 32.3N 57.5W AT 16/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 369 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 90 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE 
NEXT THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 55W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-37N BETWEEN 
56W-60W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N31W TO A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 10N32W TO 
7N33W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS 
RETAINING SOME MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R SEVIRI 
AIRMASS PRODUCT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATED 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-
37W. 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
22N52W TO 10N53W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N DESPITE 
THE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE 
NORTHEAST PER GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT. 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
13N27W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N32W TO 9N47W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 9N47W TO TRINIDAD AT 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-15N 
BETWEEN 10W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N 
BETWEEN 37W-46W. 
...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF STATES 
FROM ROUGHLY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 
HOUSTON TEXAS TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. IN ADDITION OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N WITH CLUSTERS 
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
FINALLY.. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W 
GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A 
COLD FRONT TO DIP OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION. 
CARIBBEAN SEA...         
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN 
REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-
20 KT TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE 
HONDURAS WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER 
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER 
NICARAGUA...SW HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N 
COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR 
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING 
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                             
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER 
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION WED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. 
                               
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES 
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTIONS ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N 
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST N OF 29N W OF 77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN 
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 51W-57W. 
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS 
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
FORMOSA


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 162321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located several hundred miles east of Bermuda.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system by late this week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)- ...EDOUARD WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 16 the center of EDOUARD was located near 33.5, -56.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 23-Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

...EDOUARD WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 56.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST. EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 23-Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTNT21 KNHC 170240
TCMAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  56.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  70SE  70SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 280SE 240SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  56.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  57.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.7N  54.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  70SE  70SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.4N  49.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 40.2N  44.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.5N  40.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N  37.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.5N  33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.5N  31.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N  56.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 23-Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170243
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric
rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane
force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft.  Therefore, the 64-
kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the
southeast and southwest quadrants.  Additionally, an earlier lower
fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest
reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise
of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak
flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the
cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and
within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles
the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical
characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or
less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all
agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive
mid-latitude baroclinic zone.

The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward,
or 035/15.  Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to
east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the
mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a
mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion
is expected with further acceleration.  A rather abrupt reduction in
forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as
Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low
situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula.  The official NHC
forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast
track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model
consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
(HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)
project 133 member multi-model ensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 33.5N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 38.4N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 40.2N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 40.5N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 40.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0000Z 38.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0000Z 35.5N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts




Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23-Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
FONT11 KNHC 170242
PWSAT1
                                                                    
HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014               
0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  



Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics- Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 02:42:10 GMT

Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 03:05:49 GMT
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