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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;152497
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could develop a few hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands by Thursday or
Friday. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward to north-
northeastward. Additional outlooks on this system will only be
issued if the development potential increases significantly.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the
2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the Tropical
Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season,
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions
warrant.
$$
Forecaster Brennan


Expires:No;;146812
AXNT20 KNHC 221804
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE 
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS 
GULF OF MEXICO COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
THE 42-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 
30N92W TO 22N97W.  GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 
8 FEET WILL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE 
WEST OF THE FRONT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS.  
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO  8N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N14W TO 
8N27W 5N34W 6N40W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 
60W EASTWARD.
 
...DISCUSSION...
...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE 
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THIS TROUGH IS ORGANIZING ITSELF 
AND IT EVENTUALLY WILL BE SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ON 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GALE-
FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION. 
CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N78W...TO GEORGIA 
NEAR 31N81W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN 
GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W...IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS...ACROSS 
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ALONG 95W FROM 
29N TO 30N. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS 
ARE IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N80W 27N70W BEYOND 32N60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO.
 
FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KVAF...KGBK...
KATP...AND KSPR.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND 
FOG COVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW 
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
TEXAS...INTO LOUISIANA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE IN 
MISSISSIPPI AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FROM PERRY FLORIDA 
WESTWARD. THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... 
FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN 
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS 
CONTINUE FROM BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG 
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA.
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG 73W AT THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...IT PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND 
BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF 22N81W IN CUBA...TO 18N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN 
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD 
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 
80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN 
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE 
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.23 IN 
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.11 IN TRINIDAD.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N/5N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 
84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 13N 
SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.
 
...HISPANIOLA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING 
HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE PASSES DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. 
CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN 
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN 
SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO 
PLATA. 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL 
COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON 
TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND/OR NEAR HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.  
...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 
28N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N37W TO 31N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN 33W AND 48W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 
24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 32N61W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N61W 22N63W 19N64W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA 
BEYOND 32N70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W 
AND 80W.  
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 26N17W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 
26N35W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
MT


	

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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.-The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
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