Hurricane



 

160 x 600  
 
 
 
 

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;965929
ABNT20 KNHC 252334
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
has changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph.  Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and
south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Expires:No;;954116
AXNT20 KNHC 251816 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Corrected for typos

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-tropical cyclone Karl is centered near 39.9N 47.9W at
25/1500 UTC or about 465 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland,
moving NE at 43 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is being
sheared to the NE of the center from 40N to 43N between 45W and
48W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave over the east Tropical Atlantic extends from
06N37W to a 1010 mb surface low centered near 08N37W to 14N35W.
The wave is moving W near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This
wave still coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in model
guidance. The wave is the leading edge of a surge of deep
moisture reaching all the way E to the African coast in TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is seen within 90 nm either side of a line from 09N41W to 14N37W.

A tropical wave in the west-central Tropical Atlantic extends
from 12N59W to 22N58W, moving W around 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is still tracking with a 700 mb trough depicted
in model guidance and a surge of moderate moisture as seen in
TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is present in a small
area on the S side of the wave from 12N to 14N between 60W and
62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W to the 1010 mb low described above centered
near 08N39W to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N39W to 07N50W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and low
along 35W, isolated moderate convection is present from 07N-12N
between 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low remains centered over the Florida Panhandle
near 31N87W. Divergent upper-level winds on the SW side of the
low are triggering moderate convection E of Texas and S of
Louisiana from 26N to 29N between 90W and 97W. A surface trough
reaches over the Bay of Campeche from 19N94W to 22N94W. A
surface ridge N of the United States gulf coast will generally
maintain light to moderate E to SE winds across the basin
through Monday. A weak cold front will reach the NW Gulf by late
Monday, then stall and dissipate by Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered just SE of Puerto Rico near
17N65W. Convergent NW to W flow aloft on the W side of the low
is suppressing convection over most of the basin. Divergent
upper-level winds are supporting cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection across the western Caribbean W of 85W over
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The Monsoon Trough passes over
Costa Rica and Panama. Low-level convergence near the trough is
generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
over the Caribbean waters S of 12N. Satellite-derived wind data
show moderate to fresh trades across the basin except S of 15N
between 68W-75W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Little
change is expected within the next 24 hours. A tropical wave
will approach from the E with isolated showers affecting the
Lesser Antilles Sunday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Only isolated showers are observed across the island at this
time. Upper-level convergence associated with an upper-level low
centered SE of Puerto Rico is the culprit. However, the upper-
level low will provide enough instability to enhance afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Karl has become post-tropical over the N Atlc. Two tropical
waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the special
features and tropical waves sections for details. To the E of
this activity; a weak 1017 surface high is located NE of the
Bahamas near 27N74W. A surface trough stretches along the SE
coast of Florida from 24N81W to 27N79W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is found from 23N to 29N between 76W
and 81W.  The remnants of T.D Lisa were analyzed as a 1011 mb
low centered near 28N42W. Isolated moderate convection
associated with the monsoon trough spreads from 04N to 13N
between 19W and 35W. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 38N21W and a 1025mb high centered near 32N28W.
Expect for Karl to continue moving NE and become a hurricane by
Sunday. A cold front will drop S into the central Atlantic on
Monday, accompanied by convection. The front will become
stationary by Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAM


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 252334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
has changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and
south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 26 Sep 2016 03:24:48 GMT
::
About Us | Site Map | Privacy | Contact form | Hurricane.com & Phonebook.com Inc

Copyright �


The hurricane and tropical cyclone information displayed here is based on the latest NOAA, NHC, NASA and other official reports received here and may or may not be the most current forecast available from these official forecasting agencies. We attempt to keep everything current, but remember to use this as a supplement to official sources. This information is for the general public's viewing, but Hurricane.com is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Customers should confirm these prognostications with official sources (see our links section) and follow local recommendations. Our advice is to always plan for the worst and get out of the way of a storm! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of these terms. One should always rely on OFFICIAL SOURCES. Email can be delayed or not delivered, servers may not be available 24 hours per day, seven days a week. Official forecasts are available via NOAA Weather Radio, NOAA Weather Wire, NOAAPORT, your local National Weather Service office and more. Use of information is at your own risk and can not be guaranteed.Please note that data and material from the National Hurricane Center and the NOAA is not subject to copyright.