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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;021184
ABNT20 KNHC 041746
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located a little more than a thousand miles
southwest of the Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is moving well south of the Cape Verde Islands. This
system has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


Expires:No;;021323
AXNT20 KNHC 041757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 38.3W AT 04/1500 
UTC OR ABOUT 1110 NM SW OF THE AZORES...MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N20W...THROUGH A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 11N20W TO 08N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 25W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W AT 15 TO 
20 KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
 
A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
INCLUDES THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 18N28W...THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N28W...TO 
11N28W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI 
TPW SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S OF 14N. AN 
INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH IS INDICATED IN MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN 26W 
AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 27W AND 31W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 16N52W TO 09N55W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF 10N WITH DRY AIR N OF 10N 
IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
AT THIS TIME. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N63W TO 11N64W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS DEPICTED BY 700 MB MODEL FIELDS WITH A TROUGH NOTED 
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W...THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 11N20W...THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
12N28W...TO 11N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
10N53W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO 
LOWS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 
31W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
EASTWARD OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH 
JUST E OF THE SE US ATLC COAST HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE 
NE GULF. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS ACROSS N FL TO THE NE GULF COAST NEAR CEDAR 
KEY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 
29N E OF 85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 
30N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. ELSEWHERE...A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH 
OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. A SURFACE HIGH CENTER OF 1016 MB NEAR 
27N87W SUPPORTS E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE S AND W 
GULF. N TO NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE E OF 85W. GENTLE VARIABLE 
WINDS ARE NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
SURFACE TROUGH OVER FL WILL EXPAND W OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH CENTERS LOCATED 
NEAR 16N88W AND PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES BETWEEN 
THESE TWO LOWS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WESTERNMOST 
UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 19N W OF 
84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE 
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 78W. DRY 
AIR AND STRONG SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST UPPER LOW. A TROPICAL 
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                           
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS 
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST E OF THE SE US COAST SUPPORTS A 1012 
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
31N76W THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO N FL NEAR 29N83W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N TO 31N 
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
AXIS W OF 77W...INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH 
ALONG 65W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N64W TO 27N67W. THESE 
TWO FEATURES SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N TO 
31N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N49W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE 
SURFACE LOW TO 26N53W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 
48W...COMBINING WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED AND A SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WITH 
ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLC...RESPECTIVELY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR 
MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE 
LIKELY N OF 25N W OF 55W WITH THE TWO WESTERN ATLC SURFACE 
TROUGHS AND THE W ATLC SURFACE LOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041746
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located a little more than a thousand miles
southwest of the Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is moving well south of the Cape Verde Islands. This
system has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila


Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)- ...FRED FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.6, -39.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression FRED Public Advisory Number 24-Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

...FRED FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 39.1W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2065 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 39.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn to
the north should begin on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is forecast to weaken to a remnant low on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 042031
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  39.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  39.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  38.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N  40.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.3N  41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N  42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N  42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N  39.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.5N  35.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.5N  31.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  39.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 


Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 042033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

The depression consists of a very tight circulation largely devoid
of deep convection. Recently a convective band is forming east of
the center, but it appears that each new burst of convection is
weaker than the previous one. It is estimated that the winds are
still 30 kt, and given the strong shear the NHC forecast calls for
Fred to become a remnant low in 24 hours or so. The GFS and UK
global models, as well as the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity
guidance, regenerate Fred by the end of the forecast period, and so
does the official forecast.

The steering pattern has not changed yet, and the depression is
still moving on a general west to west-northwest track at 8 kt. In
about 48 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the
global models to deepen in the central Atlantic. This pattern should
force the depression or its remnants to recurve and become embedded
within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is within
the guidance envelope during the next 2 to 3 days and then lies
between the GFS and the multi-model consensus. The GFS insists on
keeping Fred meandering across the North Atlantic for more than a
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 22.6N  39.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 23.3N  41.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 25.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 28.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 96H  08/1800Z 31.5N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/1800Z 33.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Depression FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 042031
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    


Tropical Depression FRED Graphics- Tropical Depression FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 20:33:09 GMT

Tropical Depression FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 21:07:50 GMT
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