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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;488236
ABNT20 KNHC 252338
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed
area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday.  The low is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued
by 9 AM EDT on Thursday.  For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Expires:No;;488546
AXNT20 KNHC 252354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave over Africa has an axis that extends from 15N07W
to 05N11W is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with
an amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of
moderate moisture from the surface to 700 mb behind the wave
trough as indicated by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery.
Isolated convection is the wave's environment.

A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic extends its
axis from 12N37W to 02N40W. The wave is moving west at about 15
kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb as a weak trough and it is
embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 700
mb as indicated by CIRA layer precipitable water imagery. The
Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air in the northern wave
environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear it is
inhibiting convection N of 07N. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 07N between 36W and 41W.
                                           
A tropical wave extends along 63W and south of 12N to inland
over eastern Venezuela moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. The
wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded in an area
of low to moderate moisture. Isolated convection prevails across
the southern half of the wave mainly south of 06N between 58W
and 64W.

A tropical wave extends across the southwest Caribbean with axis
from 17N78W to 06N78W. This wave is moving west at about 5 to 10
kt. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment and
with the support of an upper-level trough currently across the
west Caribbean, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are observed S of 16N between 72W and 82W. 
  
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...      

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa reaching the east
Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 06N20W where the ITCZ begins to
E of a tropical wave near 04N35W. The ITCZ then resumes west of
the wave near 03N40W to South America near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 2N to 08N between 30W and
36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic SW across Florida
and then reaching the Gulf waters. At upper levels, a ridge
extends across most of the basin except east of 86W where the
eastern portion of an upper-level trough prevails. Scatterometer
data depict a gentle to moderate SE flow across the basin. 
Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24
hours. The pressure gradient will strengthen over the northwest
Gulf by Friday morning supporting an increase the southeast
winds to fresh to strong.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave located in
the SW Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Scattered light to moderate convection is observed over
Cuba and Hispaniola supported by an upper-level trough with axis
extending along 80W. Low-level moisture transported by the
moderate to fresh trades is generating isolated convection that
prevails across the remainder of the basin. A strong pressure
gradient between the low pressure in the SW basin and the high
pressure NE of the area in the Atlantic supports fresh to strong
winds S of 18N between 68W and 79W. These winds are forecast to
diminish during the next 48 hours. Expect during the next 24
hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with
convection while another tropical wave will enter the basin.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection will continue across the island
through the evening hours supported by an upper-level trough
with axis along 80W. A similar pattern will continue during the
next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...       

A middle to upper-level trough prevails over the W Atlantic with
base reaching S to the SW Caribbean. This feature supports
isolated to scattered moderate convection across the west
Atlantic mainly W of 70W. To the east, a surface trough extends
from 31N67W to 25N72W. A 1017 mb surface low is centered near
26N68W, with a surface trough extending from 29N67W, to the low,
to 24N70W. Latest satellite imagery and current observations
show some signs of organization of this low and environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development. For future information chances, please refer to the
Special Tropical Weather Outlook product under AWIPS Header
TWOAT and WMO Header ABNT20 KNHC. A tropical wave extends across
the south-central Atlantic along 38W. Please see the Tropical
Wave section for more details. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered
near 36N49W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the low in the
west Atlantic to move NW with convection. 

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 252338
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday. The low is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued
by 9 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.-The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
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