Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;854369
ABNT20 KNHC 200541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST OFF THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Expires:No;;854795
AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY AT 20/0600 UTC
IS NEAR 19.6N 96.1W...MOVING WESTWARD 5 KNOTS. THE
POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 24 NM
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST
WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 85W...
INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH
OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
94W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM GUATEMALA TO 23N
BETWEEN 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
100W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS
0.37 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W
12N33W 8N34W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND
70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC FOR
GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W...TO 9N20W AND 8N24W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N32W 8N35W 7N44W...
TO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT EVENTUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF T.S. BARRY.
SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N63W 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N87W 27N91W...AND 25N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.
FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM BARRY. EXPECT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER WILL BE
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN
30 NM IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 KNOTS TO 33 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
BERMUDA-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 80W. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD
IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS
SPIRALLING AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...BETWEEN 75W
AND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS
COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 74W...AND
IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W
AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOWARD NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 32N
BETWEEN 59W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC
FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF
THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD...REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEXT 48 HOUR
TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD...REPLACED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 27N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN 33W AND
53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 24N TO
30N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N23W
TO A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N29W
AND 13N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N63W 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N87W 27N91W...AND 25N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W...TO 27N30W...
23N28W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND
73W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
MT
Advisory
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST OFF THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)- ...BARRY APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -96.1 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 11A-Issued at 100 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
000 WTNT32 KNHC 200539 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 100 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 ...BARRY APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 96.1W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL... AND WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013
000 WTNT22 KNHC 200237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 11-Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
000 WTNT42 KNHC 200238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND STRONGEST WINDS. A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11-Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013
000
FONT12 KNHC 200238
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 16 36 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 13 56 46 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 85 28 18 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 49 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
VERACRUZ MX 50 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm BARRY Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2013 05:41:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT