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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;994580
ABNT20 KNHC 271125
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Expires:No;;995249
AXNT20 KNHC 271152
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 22N79W TO 18.5N84W TO 
16N85.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET...IN THE AREA OF THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 17.5N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 
88W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W TO 
6N23W 5N33W AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N 
BETWEEN 10W AND 22W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W 
AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N SOUTHWARD FROM 12W 
EASTWARD...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W.
...DISCUSSION...
...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A....BEYOND 
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...INTO THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE 
COAST OF EAST CENTRAL MEXICO...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. IT 
CROSSES FLORIDA...JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MOVING 
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE BAHAMAS 
NEAR 25N77W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
NEAR 18N84W...CURVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS... 
CURVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF 
GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N83W 16N86W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N71W 27N75W 22N81W...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N81W 16N84W.
 
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 
MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER 
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 
FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGBK... 
KGRY...KATP...KIPN...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KGUL HAS REPORTED 
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED 
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS IN HARLINGEN...BROWNSVILLE...AND PORT 
ISABEL. THE VISIBILITY WAS AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AT 
27/0915 UTC AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. THE VISIBILITY 
CURRENTLY IS ABOUT 7 MILES.
 
...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 22N49W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 
29N60W 21N61W 20N64W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W...TO 
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W...AND INTO COLOMBIA NEAR 
6N71W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 
VENEZUELA...TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BECOMES 
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING 
AROUND THE 22N49W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ANOTHER PART OF 
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND 60W. THE POINT OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW FOR THE BAND OF 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS NEAR 20N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND 
50W...AROUND THE 22N49W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 64W...AND FROM 5N TO 
19N BETWEEN 40W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 65W IN THE EASTERN 
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO 
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W...CURVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF 
HONDURAS...CURVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS 
OF GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N83W 16N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N81W 
16N84W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 19N79W...BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA-TO-THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N...AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. IT IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 15N74W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN 
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN HAVANA IN CUBA. 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN  
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 
10N NORTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.
...HISPANIOLA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND SOUTHEASTERN 
CUBA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA. 
CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA 
ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA 
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.
 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
WITH A TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE 
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW 
FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH 
HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE 
EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA.
 
...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N7W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST OFF THE COASTS OF PORTUGAL 
AND SPAIN...THROUGH MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...AND 
MAURITANIA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N33W 23N25W 22N17W.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 34N44W...TO 29N29W 25N22W...AND INTO SOUTHERN 
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
SAME 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 34N50W 32N60W...TOWARD 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
MT


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271125
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 27 Nov 2014 11:52:28 GMT
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