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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;374446
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven



Expires:No;;374969
AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 
10N-19N MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A  
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE 
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS 
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 
12N-21N MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING 
EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
THE WAVE IS ALSO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS 
OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 10N80W 
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE 
ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA.
    
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 15N20W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N23W THEN THROUGH 
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W ALONG 9N42W TO 8N52W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N E OF 24W TO 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-50W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR 
SE CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
IS OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 LOW OVER W GEORGIA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 
PENSACOLA INTO THE GULF WATERS THEN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA 
OF LOUISIANA ALONG 29N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT 
WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N90W TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N88W TO 27N95W 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 23N EXCEPT N OF THE FRONT 
WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 18N94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 
1017 MB HIGH IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE 
N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK 
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N 
BETWEEN 82W-85W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW E OF 
THE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE FAR W DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE. AN UPPER RIDGE 
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND 
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA MOVING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N W OF 77W TO OVER NICARAGUA. W ATLC 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE 
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND 
THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF GONAVE 
THIS EVENING BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN WILL 
MEANDER WESTWARD. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AGAIN SAT NIGHT 
LESSENING THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENINGS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W EXTENDING 
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW OVER HISPANIOLA AND N TO BEYOND 32N74W 
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
24N-29N W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 
90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N76W TO 32N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC 
NEAR 32N35W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N REACHING TO S FLORIDA ON SUN.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 312334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
have become less favorable, and development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 01 Aug 2015 03:08:43 GMT
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