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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Discussion

	Expires:No;;386135
ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
$$
Forecaster Avila


Expires:No;;386469
AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W 
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS 
SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.  
 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO 
7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM 
6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE 
YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE 
THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W. 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N 
BETWEEN 49W-52W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...                                              
GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE 
FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER 
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB 
LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO 
27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 
86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W 
OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF 
EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG 
27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.  
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN 
SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W. 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA 
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND 
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE 
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU. 
...HISPANIOLA...                                             
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE 
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE 
ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY 
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME 
HEATING THROUGH THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA 
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY 
DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR 
JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N 
BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W 
ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO 
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 
FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND 
32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB 
LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 
LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT 
THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT 
BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$ 
PAW


	

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.-No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 30 Sep 2014 13:40:58 GMT
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