Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)-
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 18
the center of TWO was located near 18.3, -91.9
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 6-Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
000
WTNT32 KNHC 182037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE COAST ON THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
000
WTNT22 KNHC 182033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 91.5W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 6-Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
000
WTNT42 KNHC 182037
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6-Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
000
FONT12 KNHC 182037
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 5 11 14 33 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 74 50 44 41 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 21 38 41 25 NA NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 2 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 30KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X 9( 9) 12(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FRONTERA MX 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression TWO Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 20:34:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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