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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system
shows signs of organization and has the potential for some
development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven


Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)- ...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of FRED was located near 22.0, -36.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 21-Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 36.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 36.5 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A
turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is
forecast by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Fred is expected to become a remnant low
on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 21-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 040231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  36.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  36.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  36.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 21-Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 040233
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong
westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35
kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B
pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters,
the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred
is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the
remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in
about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable
environment, but this is uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a
little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the
overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair
amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will
recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude
westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted
a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the
initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is
largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model
consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS,
GEFS mean, and HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 22.0N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21-Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 040231
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  


Tropical Storm FRED Graphics- Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 02:32:52 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 03:07:51 GMT
	


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