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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)- ...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 23.0, -95.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 3A-Issued at 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021143
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 95.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 3-Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 3-Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020845
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt.  In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.

The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3-Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

000
FONT15 KNHC 020845
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  2   7( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34 14  13(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  4  26(30)  13(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  4  10(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics- Tropical Storm DOLLY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 11:44:33 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 09:03:46 GMT
	


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