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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A strong tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure is
moving westward across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Reports from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft and surface
observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined
circulation, but it nevertheless is producing tropical-storm-force
winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent
waters. Although upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, this system could
become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development by the weekend when the system is near the
central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force can be
expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the
northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon. Strong
winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are
expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National
Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)- ...GASTON MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 24 the center of GASTON was located near 17.4, -40.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 9-Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 242032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016

...GASTON MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 40.6W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 40.6 West.  Gaston is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin




Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 9-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT22 KNHC 242032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  40.6W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  40.6W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  39.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.8N  42.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N  44.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N  46.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.7N  49.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.3N  54.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 30.1N  57.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.6N  58.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  40.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN





Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 9-Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016

000
WTNT42 KNHC 242034
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016

Gaston is being affected by southwesterly vertical shear associated
with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and cut-off low seen in
water vapor imagery near 26n 51w.  The shear has caused the
low-level center to become partially exposed while much of the
deep convection has been shunted to eastern half of the circulation.
In spite of the degraded satellite presentation, dropsonde data
from the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft investigating Gaston
support keeping the intensity at 60 kt.  In fact, additional
observations from the ongoing mission might reveal that the system
is even a little stronger than this estimate.

Gaston is in for a prolonged period of strong southwesterly shear
for the next 36 to 48 hours, with the shear possibly peaking around
30 kt during that time.  The considerable shear is expected to
induce weakening, and it is possible that more weakening could occur
than indicated in the forecast despite the cyclone's moving over
warmer waters.  Once Gaston's interaction with the trough lessens in
about 2 days, the cyclone should reach 29 deg C water when the
shear diminishes.  This should give Gaston an opportunity to
re-intensify for at least a couple of days before the models
indicate an increase in shear at the end of the forecast period.
The intensity forecast is reduced relative to the previous one and
is a little below the multi-model consensus through 48 hours, but
then reverses and is above the consensus aids from 72-120 hours.

Gaston's heading is now definitively northwestward, and the initial
motion estimate is 315/14.  A continued northwestward motion is
likely for the next few days as Gaston moves between one cell of the
subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic and the cut-off
low to the northwest.  After 72 hours, Gaston should approach a more
significant weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge around 60w
and slow while turning north-northwestward to northward.  There are
substantial model differences again this cycle, with the ECMWF
indicating a weaker subtropical ridge.  The weaker ridge makes
Gaston more vulnerable to the mid-latitude westerly flow over
the North Atlantic, which results in an earlier recurvature.
However, the bulk of the guidance has a stronger ridge, and thus
have solutions that go much farther west.  No major changes have
been made to the previous forecast in the short term but the track
has been adjusted much farther to the left after 72 hours, in the
direction of but not as far left as the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 17.4N  40.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 18.8N  42.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 23.5N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 25.7N  49.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 28.3N  54.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 30.1N  57.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 31.6N  58.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin




Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9-Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016

000
FONT12 KNHC 242033
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016               
2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               



Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics- Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 20:36:06 GMT

Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 21:05:40 GMT
	

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