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Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 170517
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

A weak tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa later today. Development of this system is not expected
through Thursday, and any development through the weekend is
expected to be slow to occur while the system moves westward at 10
to 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)- ...EDOUARD ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of EDOUARD was located near 35.1, -55.4 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 24-Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

...EDOUARD ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 55.4W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1490 MI...2395 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST.  EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.  EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING TODAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTNT21 KNHC 170848
TCMAT1
 
HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N  55.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 140SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 230SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N  55.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  56.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.2N  52.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 110SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.3N  47.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 150SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.3N  42.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 140SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.3N  39.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.1N  36.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N  55.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 



Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

000
WTNT41 KNHC 170849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed
very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images
indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level
concentric rings.  A dropsonde released into the southeastern
eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission
measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which
equates to an intensity of about 75 kt.  Edouard's initial
intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the
dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.
Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and
961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm
pressure of 959 mb.

Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12
hours or so.  Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,
vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows
westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours.  With the environment
becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after
that.  The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate
from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic
support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical
low by day 3, if not sooner.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.
The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude
westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the
next 24 hours or so.  However, the cyclone is forecast to stay
south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and
slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis.  Toward the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward
before it reaches the main islands of the Azores.  The track
guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then
shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the
ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn.  The updated NHC
track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too
far from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 35.1N  55.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 39.3N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 40.3N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 40.3N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 40.1N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg




Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

000
FONT11 KNHC 170848
PWSAT1
                                                                    
HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014               
0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics- Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 08:53:04 GMT

Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 09:05:48 GMT
	


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