Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Advisories
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
ABNT20 KNHC 170517
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 500 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
A weak tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa later today. Development of this system is not expected
through Thursday, and any development through the weekend is
expected to be slow to occur while the system moves westward at 10
to 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)- ...EDOUARD ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of EDOUARD was located near 35.1, -55.4 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 24-Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014000 WTNT31 KNHC 170848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 ...EDOUARD ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 55.4W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1490 MI...2395 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON THURSDAY. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 24-Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014000 WTNT21 KNHC 170848 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 55.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 140SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 230SW 260NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 55.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 56.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.3N 47.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 150SE 140SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.3N 39.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.1N 36.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 55.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 24-Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014000 WTNT41 KNHC 170849 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level concentric rings. A dropsonde released into the southeastern eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which equates to an intensity of about 75 kt. Edouard's initial intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall. Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and 961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm pressure of 959 mb. Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12 hours or so. Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water, vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours. With the environment becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after that. The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical low by day 3, if not sooner. Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt. The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the next 24 hours or so. However, the cyclone is forecast to stay south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis. Toward the end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward before it reaches the main islands of the Azores. The track guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn. The updated NHC track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too far from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 35.1N 55.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 39.3N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 40.3N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 40.3N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 40.1N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24-Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014000 FONT11 KNHC 170848 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics-
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 08:53:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 09:05:48 GMT